3906 Cherry Brook Dr

Arnold, MO 63010

$149,000F

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 512 sqft · Built 1985 · Condo · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,218/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$149
• HOA: −$152
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $-120/mo
• Annual: $-1,441/yr
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.45%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-120 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $128k (14.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (18.2% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $122k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#396 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Fox C-6 (suburban): math 35% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #103 of 324 in MO (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Raymond Nancy Hodge Elem. (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #284 of 1,115 statewide, top 30%, 322 students, 30% FRL); Seckman Sr. High (math 22% / reading 64%, grade F, #211 of 521 statewide, top 41%, 1,793 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 24% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 152 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 807 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $149k implies a 129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.8% in Arnold — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.