407 W Lincoln

Hamburg, AR 71646

$75,600B+

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,488 sqft · Built 1951 · Other · Active · 65 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,159/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$396
• Tax + insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $393/mo
• Annual: $4,720/yr
• Cap rate: 12.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.30%
• DSCR: 1.99
• 1% rule: 1.53%
• Cash to close: $21,168

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $76k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $393 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $76k).
• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($71k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $71k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $523 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#125 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hamburg School District (town): math 24% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #187 of 238 in AR (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP.
• Ashley County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 46% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.