407 W Lincoln · Hamburg, AR 71646

$75,600

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,488 sqft · Other public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1951 0.79 ac lot $30/sqft · 50% below area Est $150k · 50% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Unique money-making potential! This Home features 3 bedrooms and 3 full baths with 3 individual kitchens as well! This home is setup to be a Triplex with potential to add more rental spaces in the garage! All this in one location and priced to sale!

Key facts

• Individual kitchens
• Rental spaces
• Detached

Tags

• INDIVIDUAL KITCHENS
• SETUP TO BE A TRIPLEX
• RENTAL SPACES
• DETACHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $76k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $393 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $76k).
• Recommended offer: $71k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#125 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hamburg School District (town): math 24% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #187 of 238 in AR (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $523 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ashley County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($71k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 46% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $71,064 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.30%
• DSCR: 1.99
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,171
• List price: $75,600
• Delta: -49.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $12,819
• Equity at exit: $11,272

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $43,491
• Equity at exit: $6,537

Cash invested: $21,168 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71646

• Home prices YoY: -4.9%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,159 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$396
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,133/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $393

Break-even live

Break-even rent $661

Max offer price $75,600

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,900
• Closing costs: $2,268
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,600 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   statusdays on market $75,600 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,600 Price Change 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,600 Price Change 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,600 Price Change 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,600 Price Change 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricestatusdays on market $75,600 Price Change 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $84,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $84,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $84,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $84,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $84,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $84,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $84,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,000 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,000 Active 45 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    price $84,000 249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (249 chars)

    Unique money-making potential! This Home features 3 bedrooms and 3 full baths with 3 individual kitchens as well! This home is setup to be a Triplex with potential to add more rental spaces in the garage! All this in one location and priced to sale!

18. 2026-05-15
    status Active 249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (249 chars)

    Unique money-making potential! This Home features 3 bedrooms and 3 full baths with 3 individual kitchens as well! This home is setup to be a Triplex with potential to add more rental spaces in the garage! All this in one location and priced to sale!

19. 2026-05-08
    status Pending 249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (249 chars)

    Unique money-making potential! This Home features 3 bedrooms and 3 full baths with 3 individual kitchens as well! This home is setup to be a Triplex with potential to add more rental spaces in the garage! All this in one location and priced to sale!

20. 2026-05-05
    price $84,000 249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (249 chars)

    Unique money-making potential! This Home features 3 bedrooms and 3 full baths with 3 individual kitchens as well! This home is setup to be a Triplex with potential to add more rental spaces in the garage! All this in one location and priced to sale!

21. 2026-05-05
    price $84,600 249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (249 chars)

    Unique money-making potential! This Home features 3 bedrooms and 3 full baths with 3 individual kitchens as well! This home is setup to be a Triplex with potential to add more rental spaces in the garage! All this in one location and priced to sale!

22. 2026-04-15
    listed $96,600 New Listing 249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (249 chars)

    Unique money-making potential! This Home features 3 bedrooms and 3 full baths with 3 individual kitchens as well! This home is setup to be a Triplex with potential to add more rental spaces in the garage! All this in one location and priced to sale!

23. 2026-04-01
    price $96,600 249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (249 chars)

    Unique money-making potential! This Home features 3 bedrooms and 3 full baths with 3 individual kitchens as well! This home is setup to be a Triplex with potential to add more rental spaces in the garage! All this in one location and priced to sale!

24. 2026-02-12
    listed $105,000 Active 249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (249 chars)

    Unique money-making potential! This Home features 3 bedrooms and 3 full baths with 3 individual kitchens as well! This home is setup to be a Triplex with potential to add more rental spaces in the garage! All this in one location and priced to sale!

25. 2024-02-28
    status Under Contract
26. 2024-02-28
    historical
27. 2024-02-06
    status Back on Market
28. 2024-01-12
    status Under Contract
29. 2023-12-18
    status Back on Market
30. 2023-11-20
    status Under Contract
31. 2023-10-18
    listed $80,000 New Listing
32. 2017-09-04
    soldstatus $68,000
33. 2017-06-25
    listed $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,133 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,133 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 46% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,910
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,235
• − Property taxes: −$1,133
• − Insurance: −$378
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,113
• − Management: −$1,113
• − Depreciation: −$2,199
• Taxable income: $3,739
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$897
• After-tax cash flow: $3,823/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamburg School District
• NCES district ID: 0500042
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $35,669
• Composite: 20.69/100
• National rank: #8527
• State rank: #187 of 238 in AR

Livability — Hamburg

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #125
• US rank: #11736

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hamburg, AR
• Population (ZIP): 6,683

Population outlook (Ashley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,757 people
• By 2030: 17,541 · -6.5%
• By 2040: 15,243 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 13,136 · -30.0%
• By 2075: 8,901 · -52.5%
• By 2100: 5,626 · -70.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 12% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Ashley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.0) · D 25.2% · R 73.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.9pp toward R · 2008: -28.1pp · 2024: -48.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.0 2020: R+43.2 2016: R+36.5 2012: R+25.4 2008: R+28.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.32%
• Current HPI: 161.0476
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+20.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $84,000 CARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Relisted — NELABOR
• 2026-05-08 Pending — NELABOR
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $84,000 NELABOR
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $84,600 NELABOR
• 2026-04-15 Listed $96,600 CARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $96,600 NELABOR
• 2026-02-12 Listed $105,000 NELABOR
• 2024-02-28 Pending — CARMLS
• 2024-02-28 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2024-02-06 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2024-01-12 Pending — CARMLS
• 2023-12-18 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2023-11-20 Pending — CARMLS
• 2023-10-18 Listed $80,000 CARMLS
• 2017-09-04 Sold (MLS) $68,000 CARMLS
• 2017-06-25 Listed $70,000 CARMLS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,133 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.