2401 Timber Run

Virginia Beach, VA 23456

$435,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,954 sqft · Built 1996 · Condo · Under Contract · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,593/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,281
• Tax + insurance: −$501
• HOA: −$180
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$754
• Net cashflow: $-124/mo
• Annual: $-1,484/yr
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.22%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $121,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $435k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-124 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $413k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $359k (17.4% below list).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($422k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $359k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#38 in VA, #880 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, commute F.
• Va Beach City Public School District (urban): math 69% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #10 of 131 in VA (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: North Landing Elementary (math 87% / reading 92%, grade A+, #19 of 1,108 statewide, top 2%, 455 students, 16% FRL); Landstown Middle (math 64% / reading 81%, grade A, #61 of 342 statewide, top 18%, 1,278 students, 41% FRL); Floyd Kellam High (math 83% / reading 93%, grade A, #13 of 319 statewide, top 4%, 1,882 students, 14% FRL) — zoned schools at 23% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 367 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 666 units permitted in Virginia Beach city in 2024 (347 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Virginia Beach County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $293k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 94% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.5% in Virginia Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($131k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.