3612 Evans To Locks Rd

Martinez, GA 30907

$140,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1999 · Other · Pending · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,123/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $841/mo
• Annual: $10,098/yr
• Cap rate: 13.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.76%
• DSCR: 2.15
• 1% rule: 1.52%
• Cash to close: $39,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $841 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#23 in GA, #3,514 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Columbia County (suburban): math 49% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 174 in GA (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Stevens Creek Elementary School (math 72% / reading 70%, grade A-, #52 of 1,228 statewide, top 4%, 839 students, 16% FRL); Stallings Island Middle School (math 67% / reading 72%, grade A, #16 of 470 statewide, top 3%, 690 students, 17% FRL); Lakeside High School (math 23% / reading 31%, grade F, #162 of 424 statewide, top 40%, 1,940 students, 24% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 333 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,213 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Columbia County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 22% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 4.6% in Martinez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.