715 E Blackjack St

Dublin, TX 76446

$45,500B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,376 sqft · Built 1967 · SingleFamily · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,096/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$239
• Tax + insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $551/mo
• Annual: $6,617/yr
• Cap rate: 20.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.94%
• DSCR: 3.31
• 1% rule: 2.41%
• Cash to close: $12,740

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $46k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $551 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $46k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $315 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#192 in TX, #4,899 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Dublin ISD (rural): math 56% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #131 of 826 in TX (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dublin El (math 72% / reading 67%, grade A-, #146 of 4,322 statewide, top 4%, 420 students, 77% FRL); Dublin Int (math 61% / reading 42%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 237 students, 80% FRL); Dublin H S (math 48% / reading 53%, grade D+, #492 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 489 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Erath County in 2024 (61 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Erath County population projected at +55% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 20.8% vs local median 2.3% in Dublin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.