715 E Blackjack St · Dublin, TX 76446

$45,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,376 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1967 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

nice 2 bedroom 1 bath on large lot. great potential

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1967

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $46k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $551 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $46k).
• Cap rate 20.8% vs local median 2.3% in Dublin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#192 in TX, #4,899 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Dublin ISD (rural): math 56% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #131 of 826 in TX (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dublin El (math 72% / reading 67%, grade A-, #146 of 4,322 statewide, top 4%, 420 students, 77% FRL); Dublin Int (math 61% / reading 42%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 237 students, 80% FRL); Dublin H S (math 48% / reading 53%, grade D+, #492 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 489 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Erath County in 2024 (61 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $315 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erath County population projected at +55% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $45,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.94%
• DSCR: 3.31
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $210,528
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
301 N Norton St	0.19mi	2/1.0	1,288 (-6%)	9mo	$189,500	$147	73
515 E Dobkins	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+9%)	16mo	$275,000	$183	50
426 E Harris St	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,409 (+2%)	16mo	$215,000	$153	48
230 W Live Oak St	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,390 (+1%)	15mo	$109,000	$78	44
218 E Church	0.44mi	2/1.0	1,212 (-12%)	23mo	$40,000	$33	40
1146 E State Highway 6	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,479 (+8%)	23mo	$210,000	$142	40
551 N Grafton St	0.68mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,304 (-5%)	9mo	$229,000	$176	39
516 N Grafton	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,210 (-12%)	2mo	$279,000	$231	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.18×
• Total profit: $27,766
• Equity at exit: $6,784

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.45×
• Total profit: $69,471
• Equity at exit: $3,934

Cash invested: $12,740 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76446

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,096 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$239
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$57 /mo · $682/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $551

Break-even live

Break-even rent $398

Max offer price $45,500

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,375
• Closing costs: $1,365
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2023-02-21
   soldstatus
2. 2022-03-02
   status Pending
3. 2018-12-11
   soldstatus
4. 2014-07-22
   status Pending
5. 2005-04-05
   historical
6. 2005-03-21
   listed $45,500
7. 2002-10-31
   soldstatus
8. 2001-09-10
   soldstatus
9. 2001-02-16
   soldstatus
10. 1995-03-03
    soldstatus
11. 1995-03-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,153
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,549
• − Property taxes: −$682
• − Insurance: −$228
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,052
• − Management: −$1,052
• − Depreciation: −$1,324
• Taxable income: $6,266
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,504
• After-tax cash flow: $5,114/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dublin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817580
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $42,446
• Composite: 45.4/100
• National rank: #2628
• State rank: #131 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dublin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #192
• US rank: #4899

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dublin, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,144

Population outlook (Erath County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,437 people
• By 2030: 55,510 · +10.1%
• By 2040: 66,379 · +31.6%
• By 2050: 77,981 · +54.6%
• By 2075: 109,727 · +117.6%
• By 2100: 132,574 · +162.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (52%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 17% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erath

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.0) · D 15.7% · R 83.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: -54.5pp · 2024: -68.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.0 2020: R+63.9 2016: R+65.5 2012: R+67.1 2008: R+54.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.31%
• Current HPI: 240.5032
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

11 events — show timeline

• 2023-02-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-03-02 Pending — NTREIS
• 2018-12-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-07-22 Pending — NTREIS
• 2005-04-05 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2005-03-21 Listed $45,500 NTREIS
• 2002-10-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-09-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-02-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-03-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-03-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,574 · +12.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.