11 Lancer Ln

Alton, NH 03809

$199,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 988 sqft · Built 1986 · Manufactured · Active · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,789/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$189
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $181/mo
• Annual: $2,166/yr
• Cap rate: 7.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.89%
• DSCR: 1.17
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $181 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (10.1% below list).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $179k (10.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#93 in NH) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Alton School District (rural): math 34% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #139 of 171 in NH (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alton Central School (Elem) (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #171 of 263 statewide, top 66%, 417 students, 17% FRL); Prospect Mountain High School (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #47 of 90 statewide, top 57%, 387 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools at 20% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 301 units permitted in Belknap County in 2024 (32 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Belknap County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 1.4% in Alton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.