11 Lancer Ln · Alton, NH 03809

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 988 sqft · Manufactured public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1986 7,840 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to easy living in the heart of Alton! This mobile home offers the convenience of OWNED LAND with no HOA fees. Ideally located just minutes from Alton Bay, local shopping, restaurants, and everyday amenities, this property provides both comfort and convenience. Whether you're looking for a year-round residence, vacation getaway, or investment opportunity, you'll appreciate the low-maintenance lifestyle and prime Lakes Region location. Enjoy nearby boating, beaches, hiking, skiing and all that the area has to offer while still being close to town conveniences.

Key facts

• Nearby boating
• Nearby hiking
• No hoa fees

Tags

• OWNED LAND
• NO HOA FEES
• PRIME LAKES REGION LOCATION
• NEARBY BOATING
• NEARBY BEACHES
• NEARBY HIKING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Dirt driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Circuit breaker electrical service; Sewer: unknown; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Double-wide manufactured home; Single-story (main living on one level); Entry faces unknown
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Built in 1986
• Exterior features: Beach access nearby; Sloping lot; In-town location near shopping and schools; Near skiing; Neighborhood setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Multiple bedrooms on the main level, including a bedroom with attached bath
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating
• Interior features: Seven total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $181 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (10.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (10.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 1.4% in Alton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#93 in NH) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Alton School District (rural): math 34% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #139 of 171 in NH (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alton Central School (Elem) (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #171 of 263 statewide, top 66%, 417 students, 17% FRL) — zoned schools at 17% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 301 units permitted in Belknap County in 2024 (32 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Belknap County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $178,916 (10.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.89%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $119,818
• Equity at exit: $179,275

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.17×
• Total profit: $343,682
• Equity at exit: $386,613

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Hampshire: 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Has just-cause statute; 30-day notice; landlord-leaning vs. neighbors.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 03809

• Home prices YoY: 19.4%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,789 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,277/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,561

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $293	-5% $237	+0% $181	+5% $124	+10% $68
Rent	-10% $39	-5% $110	+0% $181	+5% $251	+10% $322
Rate	-1.0pp $281	-0.5pp $231	base $181	+0.5pp $129	+1.0pp $76

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $199,000 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 23 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    listed $199,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,277 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,808 · $234/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,531/yr (+$128/mo · 119.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,470
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,277
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,718
• − Management: −$1,718
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$1,173
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$282
• After-tax cash flow: $2,448/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alton School District
• NCES district ID: 3301440
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $66,442
• Composite: 36.9/100
• National rank: #9132
• State rank: #139 of 171 in NH

Livability — Alton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #93
• US rank: #21895

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,684

Population outlook (Belknap County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,702 people
• By 2030: 60,353 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 58,264 · -4.0%
• By 2050: 54,533 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 45,622 · -24.8%
• By 2100: 33,772 · -44.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Portuguese 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Belknap

• 2024 margin: R (+13.1) · D 43.1% · R 56.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.2pp toward R · 2008: 1.2pp · 2024: -13.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.1 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+16.8 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+1.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 75.10%
• Current HPI: 461.4011
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $199,000 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,277 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.