14169 Pollard

Lytle Creek, CA 92358

$245,000C

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,024 sqft · Built 1916 · Other · Active · 64 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,050/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax + insurance: −$373
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-39/mo
• Annual: $-465/yr
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.48%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $68,600

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $245k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-465/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (16.3% below list).
• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $205k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 42/100 on livability (#1,367 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, employment B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Rialto Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #268 of 517 in CA (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1916 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $200k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1916 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?