14169 Pollard · Lytle Creek, CA 92358

$245,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,024 sqft · Other public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1916 4,000 sqft lot $239/sqft · 40% below area Est $410k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Creekside Escape in Happy Jack – Your Private Retreat in Lytle Creek Looking for a peaceful getaway without the long mountain drive? This charming cabin in the sought-after Happy Jack area of Lytle Creek offers the perfect blend of comfort, nature, and convenience. Set right along a gently flowing stream, this property invites you to slow down and enjoy the calming sounds of water just steps from your door. Inside, you’ll find a warm and inviting living space featuring a wood-burning fireplace, exposed beam ceilings, and durable laminate flooring. A cozy nook provides the perfect spot for morning coffee or a quiet reading corner, while ceiling fans throughout help keep the home comfortable year-round. The dining area offers plenty of space to gather, and the rustic-style kitchen is full of character with knotty pine accents, tile countertops, tile flooring, and a classic wood-burning stove. All appliances are included, making this home move-in ready. Both bedrooms are comfortably sized. The primary bedroom features mirrored closet doors, laminate flooring, and a ceiling fan, while the second bedroom showcases knotty pine walls, tile flooring, and its own fan—ideal for guests or flexible use. The bathroom is thoughtfully updated with a pedestal sink, tub/shower combo, linen storage, and newer fixtures. Step outside to a yard area with gated access to the creek—perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or simply enjoying the peaceful surroundings. Whether you're listening to the water from the deck or unwinding under the trees, this property delivers a true sense of escape. Located just a short 10–20 minute drive from shopping, dining, and freeway access, you’ll enjoy a quiet, tucked-away setting without sacrificing convenience. The Lytle Creek community also offers a community center and senior center with activities and social events. Outdoor recreation is right at your fingertips—fishing, hiking, camping, and picnicking are all nearby. Property Notes: Situated on US Forest Service leased land If you’ve been dreaming of a serene retreat with natural charm and easy access, this Creekside cabin is ready to welcome you home.

Key facts

• Rustic style kitchen
• Private retreat
• 4,000 sq ft lot

Tags

• PRIVATE RETREAT
• GENTLY FLOWING STREAM
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• EXPOSED BEAM CEILINGS
• DURABLE LAMINATE FLOORING
• RUSTIC STYLE KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-465/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (16.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 42/100 on livability (#1,367 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, employment B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Rialto Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #268 of 517 in CA (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $200k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1916 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,000 (16.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1916 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.48%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $409,879
• List price: $245,000
• Delta: -40.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $130,974
• Equity at exit: $220,715

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.65×
• Total profit: $387,657
• Equity at exit: $475,981

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92358

• Home prices YoY: 12.0%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,050 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$205 /mo · $2,459/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,099

Max offer price $238,151

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14043 Meadow Ln Lytle Creek, CA	2.0	1.0	880	$2,050	$2.33	43d	1	0.08mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $245,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $245,000 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $245,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-04-15
    listed $245,000 Active 2210-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2210 chars)

    Creekside Escape in Happy Jack – Your Private Retreat in Lytle Creek Looking for a peaceful getaway without the long mountain drive? This charming cabin in the sought-after Happy Jack area of Lytle Creek offers the perfect blend of comfort, nature, and convenience. Set right along a gently flowing stream, this property invites you to slow down and enjoy the calming sounds of water just steps from your door. Inside, you’ll find a warm and inviting living space featuring a wood-burning fireplace, exposed beam ceilings, and durable laminate flooring. A cozy nook provides the perfect spot for morning coffee or a quiet reading corner, while ceiling fans throughout help keep the home comfortable year-round. The dining area offers plenty of space to gather, and the rustic-style kitchen is full of character with knotty pine accents, tile countertops, tile flooring, and a classic wood-burning stove. All appliances are included, making this home move-in ready. Both bedrooms are comfortably sized. The primary bedroom features mirrored closet doors, laminate flooring, and a ceiling fan, while the second bedroom showcases knotty pine walls, tile flooring, and its own fan—ideal for guests or flexible use. The bathroom is thoughtfully updated with a pedestal sink, tub/shower combo, linen storage, and newer fixtures. Step outside to a yard area with gated access to the creek—perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or simply enjoying the peaceful surroundings. Whether you're listening to the water from the deck or unwinding under the trees, this property delivers a true sense of escape. Located just a short 10–20 minute drive from shopping, dining, and freeway access, you’ll enjoy a quiet, tucked-away setting without sacrificing convenience. The Lytle Creek community also offers a community center and senior center with activities and social events. Outdoor recreation is right at your fingertips—fishing, hiking, camping, and picnicking are all nearby. Property Notes: Situated on US Forest Service leased land If you’ve been dreaming of a serene retreat with natural charm and easy access, this Creekside cabin is ready to welcome you home.

16. 2024-08-20
    historical
17. 2024-07-20
    price $285,000
18. 2024-07-02
    price $302,900
19. 2024-04-23
    listed $312,900 Active
20. 2019-10-03
    soldstatus $200,000 Closed Sale
21. 2019-08-25
    historical Active Under Contract
22. 2019-05-07
    listed $210,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,459 · $205/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,459 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥95°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$2,459
• − Insurance: −$2,022
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,968
• − Management: −$1,968
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$4,669
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,120
• After-tax cash flow: $655/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rialto Unified
• NCES district ID: 0632370
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $50,916
• Composite: 30.77/100
• National rank: #6154
• State rank: #268 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lytle Creek

• Score: 42/100
• State rank: #1367
• US rank: #27080

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment B Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lytle Creek, CA
• Population (ZIP): 712

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 5% Native American 4% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Portuguese 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Korean 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.96%
• Current HPI: 438.7806
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+16.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $245,000 CRMLS
• 2024-08-20 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-07-20 Price Changed $285,000 CRMLS
• 2024-07-02 Price Changed $302,900 CRMLS
• 2024-04-23 Listed $312,900 CRMLS
• 2019-10-03 Sold (MLS) $200,000 CRMLS
• 2019-08-25 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2019-05-07 Listed $210,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+13.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,459 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.