Firefly Plan

Fort Worth, TX 76179

$342,990F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,827 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 344 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,625/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,534
• Tax + insurance: −$805
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$551
• Net cashflow: $-1,265/mo
• Annual: $-15,183/yr
• Cap rate: 3.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.22%
• DSCR: 0.50
• 1% rule: 0.54%
• Cash to close: $135,292

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $343k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $300k (12.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (23.5% below list).
• It's been on market 344 days — a 12% lower offer ($302k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $263k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Carl E Schluter El (math 48% / reading 55%, grade C-, #808 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 701 students, 16% FRL); Chisholm Trail Middle (math 39% / reading 35%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 684 students, 51% FRL); V R Eaton H S (math 48% / reading 62%, grade C, #373 of 1,632 statewide, top 23%, 3,273 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 22% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1074 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 344 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.