Firefly Plan · Fort Worth, TX 76179

$342,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,827 sqft · SingleFamily · 344 Days on market

↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Cash flow +4.4/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

As you enter the home from the extended front porch, you're welcomed into the foyer, where two bedrooms sit at the front of the home and share a full bath. Continuing down the hall, you'll find an additional bedroom and a conveniently located laundry room nearby. The heart of the home opens into the kitchen, seamlessly connected to the family room and dining area, creating an inviting space for gathering. A back patio extends off the dining area, offering a spot to enjoy the outdoors. Just off the dining area, the primary bedroom features a spacious walk-in closet and a private primary bath.

Key facts

• Granite countertops
• 2 parking spots
• Listed 344 days

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

🏗️ New construction. The $342,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $483,185.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $343k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $300k (12.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (23.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $263k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Carl E Schluter El (math 48% / reading 55%, grade C-, #808 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 701 students, 16% FRL); Chisholm Trail Middle (math 39% / reading 35%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 684 students, 51% FRL); V R Eaton H S (math 48% / reading 62%, grade C, #373 of 1,632 statewide, top 23%, 3,273 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 22% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1074 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 344 days — a 12% lower offer ($302k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $262,528 (23.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 344 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.22%
• DSCR: 0.50
• GRM: 15.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $483,185
• List price: $342,990
• Delta: -29.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12737 Big Rnch	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,827 (0%)	1mo	$347,990	$190	97
12637 Big Ranch Rd	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,827 (0%)	6mo	$302,000	$165	87
12748 Haymarket	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,636 (-10%)	2mo	$302,490	$185	72
12641 Big Ranch Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,636 (-10%)	5mo	$317,990	$194	66
2640 Comanche Moon Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,908 (+4%)	23mo	$550,000	$288	44
12540 Park Ridge Trl	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,005 (+10%)	23mo	$615,000	$307	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-162,718
• Equity at exit: $72,045

10-year hold

• IRR: -68.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.93×
• Total profit: $-260,738
• Equity at exit: $41,777

Cash invested: $135,292 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76179

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1074
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,625 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,534
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$604 /mo · $7,248/yr
• Insurance: −$201
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$551
• Net cashflow: $-1,265

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,227

Max offer price $300,107

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-931	-5% $-1,098	+0% $-1,265	+5% $-1,432	+10% $-1,599
Rent	-10% $-1,473	-5% $-1,369	+0% $-1,265	+5% $-1,162	+10% $-1,058
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,022	-0.5pp $-1,142	base $-1,265	+0.5pp $-1,390	+1.0pp $-1,518

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $120,796
• Closing costs: $14,496
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12737 Big Ranch Rd Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,499	$1.37	0d	1	0.08mi
12733 Big Ranch Rd Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$2,599	$1.59	45d	1	0.09mi
12720 Haymarket Rd Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	2401	$2,505	$1.04	0d	1	0.13mi
13000 N Saginaw Blvd Fort Worth, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1061	$2,521	$2.38	0d	13	0.38mi
12356 Hulson Trl Haslet, TX	4.0	2.0	2221	$2,600	$1.17	1d	1	1.36mi
12356 Hulson Trl Haslet, TX	4.0	2.0	2221	$2,600	$1.17	13d	1	1.36mi
12424 Iveson Dr Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1902	$2,445	$1.29	45d	1	1.43mi
12405 Iveson Dr Haslet, TX	4.0	3.5	2531	$3,099	$1.22	1d	1	1.46mi
1637 Shadow Hawk Dr Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,995	$1.32	20d	1	1.47mi
1540 Western Willow Dr Haslet, TX	4.0	2.0	1788	$1,694	$0.95	26d	1	1.48mi
12376 Iveson Dr Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1883	$2,525	$1.34	9d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $342,990 Active 344 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $342,990 Active 341 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $342,990 Active 340 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $342,990 Active 339 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $342,990 Active 338 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $342,990 Active 336 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $342,990 Active 332 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $342,990 Active 331 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $342,990 Active 330 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $342,990 Active 327 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $342,990 Active 326 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $342,990 Active 325 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $342,990 Active 324 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $342,990 Active 323 DOM
15. 2026-04-03
    price $342,990 598-char remark

    Show marketing remark (598 chars)

    As you enter the home from the extended front porch, you're welcomed into the foyer, where two bedrooms sit at the front of the home and share a full bath. Continuing down the hall, you'll find an additional bedroom and a conveniently located laundry room nearby. The heart of the home opens into the kitchen, seamlessly connected to the family room and dining area, creating an inviting space for gathering. A back patio extends off the dining area, offering a spot to enjoy the outdoors. Just off the dining area, the primary bedroom features a spacious walk-in closet and a private primary bath.

16. 2025-10-31
    price $340,990 598-char remark

    Show marketing remark (598 chars)

    As you enter the home from the extended front porch, you're welcomed into the foyer, where two bedrooms sit at the front of the home and share a full bath. Continuing down the hall, you'll find an additional bedroom and a conveniently located laundry room nearby. The heart of the home opens into the kitchen, seamlessly connected to the family room and dining area, creating an inviting space for gathering. A back patio extends off the dining area, offering a spot to enjoy the outdoors. Just off the dining area, the primary bedroom features a spacious walk-in closet and a private primary bath.

17. 2025-10-30
    price $350,990 598-char remark

    Show marketing remark (598 chars)

    As you enter the home from the extended front porch, you're welcomed into the foyer, where two bedrooms sit at the front of the home and share a full bath. Continuing down the hall, you'll find an additional bedroom and a conveniently located laundry room nearby. The heart of the home opens into the kitchen, seamlessly connected to the family room and dining area, creating an inviting space for gathering. A back patio extends off the dining area, offering a spot to enjoy the outdoors. Just off the dining area, the primary bedroom features a spacious walk-in closet and a private primary bath.

18. 2025-10-30
    price $340,990 598-char remark

    Show marketing remark (598 chars)

    As you enter the home from the extended front porch, you're welcomed into the foyer, where two bedrooms sit at the front of the home and share a full bath. Continuing down the hall, you'll find an additional bedroom and a conveniently located laundry room nearby. The heart of the home opens into the kitchen, seamlessly connected to the family room and dining area, creating an inviting space for gathering. A back patio extends off the dining area, offering a spot to enjoy the outdoors. Just off the dining area, the primary bedroom features a spacious walk-in closet and a private primary bath.

19. 2025-09-24
    price $350,990 598-char remark

    Show marketing remark (598 chars)

    As you enter the home from the extended front porch, you're welcomed into the foyer, where two bedrooms sit at the front of the home and share a full bath. Continuing down the hall, you'll find an additional bedroom and a conveniently located laundry room nearby. The heart of the home opens into the kitchen, seamlessly connected to the family room and dining area, creating an inviting space for gathering. A back patio extends off the dining area, offering a spot to enjoy the outdoors. Just off the dining area, the primary bedroom features a spacious walk-in closet and a private primary bath.

20. 2025-08-15
    price $370,990 598-char remark

    Show marketing remark (598 chars)

    As you enter the home from the extended front porch, you're welcomed into the foyer, where two bedrooms sit at the front of the home and share a full bath. Continuing down the hall, you'll find an additional bedroom and a conveniently located laundry room nearby. The heart of the home opens into the kitchen, seamlessly connected to the family room and dining area, creating an inviting space for gathering. A back patio extends off the dining area, offering a spot to enjoy the outdoors. Just off the dining area, the primary bedroom features a spacious walk-in closet and a private primary bath.

21. 2025-07-12
    listed $385,990 Active 598-char remark

    Show marketing remark (598 chars)

    As you enter the home from the extended front porch, you're welcomed into the foyer, where two bedrooms sit at the front of the home and share a full bath. Continuing down the hall, you'll find an additional bedroom and a conveniently located laundry room nearby. The heart of the home opens into the kitchen, seamlessly connected to the family room and dining area, creating an inviting space for gathering. A back patio extends off the dining area, offering a spot to enjoy the outdoors. Just off the dining area, the primary bedroom features a spacious walk-in closet and a private primary bath.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,503
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,066
• − Property taxes: −$7,248
• − Insurance: −$2,416
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,520
• − Management: −$2,520
• − Depreciation: −$14,056
• Taxable loss: −$24,323
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,838
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,345/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833180
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $85,315
• Composite: 46.15/100
• National rank: #2504
• State rank: #120 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fort Worth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1954

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Worth, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 911,619
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 80,090
• Household income: $107,428
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1494.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 14% Black 12% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -137.12%
• Current HPI: 237.6676
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.51%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $342,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $340,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $350,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $340,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $350,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-15 Price Changed $370,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-12 Listed $385,990 Zillow