235 N 12th St

Junction, TX 76849

$90,198C+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,856 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Active · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,130/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$473
• Tax + insurance: −$255
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $164/mo
• Annual: $1,973/yr
• Cap rate: 8.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.81%
• DSCR: 1.35
• 1% rule: 1.25%
• Cash to close: $25,255

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $164 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($624 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#130 in TX, #3,913 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D+, amenities D, commute F.
• Junction ISD (town): math 28% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #619 of 826 in TX (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Junction El (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 303 students, 67% FRL); Junction H S (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 190 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP.
• Kimble County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.