235 N 12th St · Junction, TX 76849

$90,198

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,856 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1975 10,454 sqft lot $49/sqft · 57% below area ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.3/30.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Excellent opportunity to find affordable housing in the beautiful city of Junction Texas. Small town charm mixed with lots of local recreation. This three bedroom two bath one story home is perfect for those who seek room for gardening, near local conveniences, hospitals, and shopping. This home has an oversized family room, and a additional room that was utilized as a fourth bedroom. Visit MYNEXTBID for details and offers. This home needs a little TLC but minor repairs for the cost conscious who like to place their personal creativity on their new home. Reach out to your local representative today for a viewing.

Key facts

• Near hospitals
• Near shopping
• Room for gardening

Tags

• ROOM FOR GARDENING
• NEAR LOCAL CONVENIENCES
• NEAR HOSPITALS
• NEAR SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision legal name: OUT/KIMBLE COUNTY
• Financial info: Down payment assistance not indicated
• HOA & community: Subdivision: Martin Add

Exterior

• Utilities: City water and sewer
• Home design: Brick exterior; Front of home faces east; Pre-owned
• Construction: Approximately 51 years old; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Chain link fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (11 x 8)
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on lower level (10 x 10); Bedroom 2 (10 x 10); Bedroom 3 (10 x 10); Bedroom 4 (12 x 16)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with tub/shower combination (6 x 8)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heat
• Interior features: One living area; All window coverings stay

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $164 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#130 in TX, #3,913 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D+, amenities D, commute F.
• Junction ISD (town): math 28% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #619 of 826 in TX (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Junction El (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 303 students, 67% FRL); Junction H S (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 190 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($624 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Kimble County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,492 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.81%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $207,475
• List price: $90,198
• Delta: -56.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
221 N 12th St	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,932 (+4%)	18mo	$174,900	$91	70
205 Mesquite St	0.74mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,708 (-8%)	21mo	$125,000	$73	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $21,418
• Equity at exit: $40,557

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.44×
• Total profit: $61,698
• Equity at exit: $62,503

Cash invested: $25,255 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76849

• Active inventory: 88
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,130 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$473
• Tax from tax record: −$218 /mo · $2,611/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $922

Max offer price $90,198

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $215	-5% $190	+0% $164	+5% $139	+10% $113
Rent	-10% $75	-5% $120	+0% $164	+5% $209	+10% $254
Rate	-1.0pp $210	-0.5pp $187	base $164	+0.5pp $141	+1.0pp $117

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,550
• Closing costs: $2,706
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $90,198 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,198 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on market $90,198 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,198 Price Change 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,198 Price Change 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,198 Price Change 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $90,198 Price Change 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $90,198 Price Change 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,198 Price Change 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    pricestatusdays on market $90,198 Price Change 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $95,504 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,504 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,504 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,504 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,504 Active 22 DOM
16. 2026-05-09
    listed $95,504 New 581-char remark
17. 2026-05-06
    historical
18. 2026-04-06
    price $100,809
19. 2026-03-20
    status Active
20. 2026-03-18
    status Pending
21. 2026-03-06
    listed $106,115 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,611 · $218/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,611 · $218/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,559
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,052
• − Property taxes: −$2,611
• − Insurance: −$451
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,085
• − Management: −$1,085
• − Depreciation: −$2,624
• Taxable income: $650
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$156
• After-tax cash flow: $1,817/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Junction ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825020
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $41,127
• Composite: 25.76/100
• National rank: #7372
• State rank: #619 of 826 in TX

Livability — Junction

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #130
• US rank: #3913

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Junction, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,488

Population outlook (Kimble County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,034 people
• By 2030: 3,790 · -6.0%
• By 2040: 3,311 · -17.9%
• By 2050: 2,914 · -27.8%
• By 2075: 2,172 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 1,425 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 13% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Kimble

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.6) · D 10.9% · R 88.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: -62.1pp · 2024: -77.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.6 2020: R+74.3 2016: R+76.7 2012: R+76.7 2008: R+62.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Price Changed $90,198 LERA
• 2026-05-09 Listed $95,504 LERA
• 2026-05-06 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $100,809 NTREIS
• 2026-03-20 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-03-18 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $106,115 NTREIS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,611 · -5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.