11460 Windsor Park Dr

Tyler, TX 75709

$345,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,942 sqft · Built 2021 · SingleFamily · Pending · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,069/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax + insurance: −$571
• HOA: −$20
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$644
• Net cashflow: $24/mo
• Annual: $294/yr
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.30%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $96,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $345k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $24 ($294/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $307k (11.0% below list).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $307k (11.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#147 in TX, #4,181 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, commute F.
• Tyler ISD (urban): math 39% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #449 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Peete El (math 22% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 414 students, 98% FRL); Three Lakes Middle (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 873 students, 64% FRL); Tyler H S (math 26% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,228 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,164 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 66% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.5% in Tyler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.