27048 Hawthorn Rd N

Pine City, MN 55037

$129,999C-

1 bd · None ba · 945 sqft · Built 2020 · SingleFamily · Pending · 71 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,202/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$217
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $51/mo
• Annual: $611/yr
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.68%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $130k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $51 ($611/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (7.6% below list).
• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $120k (7.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#370 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pine City Public School District (town): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #222 of 301 in MN (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 116 units permitted in Pine County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pine County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $46k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 1.5% in Pine City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Moderate: kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate: kitchen appliances — small appliances need updating
• Moderate: bathroom fixtures — basic fixtures need updating