27048 Hawthorn Rd N · Pine City, MN 55037

$129,999

1 bd · None ba · 945 sqft · SingleFamily · 71 Days on market

Built 2020 Fair condition 7.00 ac lot ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

A great deal - quiet country cabin - on 7 acres plus additional 5 acre to north - take a closer look

Key facts

• Pond
• Trails
• Mix of land

Tags

• GETAWAY CABIN
• MIX OF LAND
• POND
• TRAILS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $130k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $51 ($611/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (7.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (7.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 1.5% in Pine City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#370 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pine City Public School District (town): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #222 of 301 in MN (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 116 units permitted in Pine County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pine County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $46k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $120,166 (7.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.68%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $74,062
• Equity at exit: $117,113

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.92×
• Total profit: $215,586
• Equity at exit: $252,559

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55037

• Home prices YoY: 12.4%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,202 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,950/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,137

Max offer price $129,999

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-28
   price $129,999 102-char remark

   Show marketing remark (102 chars)

   A great deal - quiet country cabin - on 7 acres plus additional 5 acre to north - take a closer look

2. 2026-04-22
   price $149,999 102-char remark

   Show marketing remark (102 chars)

   A great deal - quiet country cabin - on 7 acres plus additional 5 acre to north - take a closer look

3. 2026-04-03
   price $169,999 102-char remark

   Show marketing remark (102 chars)

   A great deal - quiet country cabin - on 7 acres plus additional 5 acre to north - take a closer look

4. 2026-04-03
   price $169,000 102-char remark

   Show marketing remark (102 chars)

   A great deal - quiet country cabin - on 7 acres plus additional 5 acre to north - take a closer look

5. 2026-03-19
   listed $176,000 Active 102-char remark

   Show marketing remark (102 chars)

   A great deal - quiet country cabin - on 7 acres plus additional 5 acre to north - take a closer look

6. 2025-12-11
   historical
7. 2025-12-11
   historical
8. 2025-11-12
   price $133,400
9. 2025-11-12
   price $188,000
10. 2025-11-07
    listed $135,900 Active
11. 2025-10-31
    listed $192,900 Active
12. 2025-10-27
    soldstatus $125,000 Sold
13. 2025-10-13
    status Pending
14. 2025-04-21
    listed $139,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,420
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,950
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,154
• − Management: −$1,154
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$1,551
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$372
• After-tax cash flow: $983/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathrooms, and fresh paint to improve its curb appeal. It has a good roof and solid foundation, making it a good investment opportunity.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate kitchen appliances — small appliances need updating
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — basic fixtures need updating

Value-add opportunities

• Resale update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing the kitchen will attract more buyers
• Resale update bathroom fixtures — modernizing the bathroom will attract more buyers
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint will improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both landscaping — improved landscaping will enhance the home's curb appeal and attract more buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
kitchen appliances · small appliances need updating	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · basic fixtures need updating	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$9,000–45,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing the kitchen will attract more buyers ↑
• Resale update bathroom fixtures — modernizing the bathroom will attract more buyers ↑
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint will improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both landscaping — improved landscaping will enhance the home's curb appeal and attract more buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pine City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2728380
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $47,606
• Composite: 34.63/100
• National rank: #5148
• State rank: #222 of 301 in MN

Livability — Pine City

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #370
• US rank: #8766

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,077

Population outlook (Pine County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,565 people
• By 2030: 26,567 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 23,878 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 20,931 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 15,372 · -44.2%
• By 2100: 11,032 · -60.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 8% Native American 7% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pine

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.2) · D 31.6% · R 66.8% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.5pp · 2024: -35.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.2 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+26.3 2012: R+0.7 2008: D+1.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.68%
• Current HPI: 251.5378
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-7.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $129,999 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $149,999 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $169,999 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $169,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Listed $176,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-11 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-11 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $133,400 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $188,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-07 Listed $135,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-31 Listed $192,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-27 Sold (MLS) $125,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-13 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-21 Listed $139,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid