301 Osprey Rd

Mathews, VA 23025

$150,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,128 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 113 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,278/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $135/mo
• Annual: $1,622/yr
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.86%
• DSCR: 1.17
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $135 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (14.8% below list).
• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#396 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mathews County Public School District (rural): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #79 of 131 in VA (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mathews Elementary (math 52% / reading 67%, grade B-, #536 of 1,108 statewide, top 51%, 318 students, 68% FRL); Thomas Hunter Middle (math 31% / reading 62%, grade D+, #264 of 342 statewide, top 77%, 283 students, 73% FRL); Mathews High (math 57% / reading 87%, grade B+, #134 of 319 statewide, top 45%, 310 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 34% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Mathews County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mathews County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.3% in Mathews — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.