301 Osprey Rd · Mathews, VA 23025

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,128 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 113 Days on market

Built 1985 1.00 ac lot $133/sqft · 36% below area Est $279k · 46% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity for a first-time buyer, retiree, or investor in peaceful Mathews County. Offered at $150,000, this manufactured home has been fully bricked around, giving the appearance of a classic brick rancher with low-maintenance appeal. Located in a quiet setting near the Mobjack Bay and Chesapeake Bay, this property offers easy access to nearby marinas and boating on the East River, making it ideal for those who enjoy coastal living, fishing, or simply the slower pace Mathews County is known for. Whether you're looking for an affordable primary residence, a weekend getaway, or an investment opportunity, this property offers strong potential at an accessible price point. Flex room is currently used as a third bedroom by tenant.

Key facts

• Fully bricked around
• Coastal living
• Quiet setting

Tags

• FULLY BRICKED AROUND
• QUIET SETTING
• EASY ACCESS TO MARINAS
• COASTAL LIVING

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $150,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$279,000) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $135 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (14.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.3% in Mathews — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#396 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, schools A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mathews County Public School District (rural): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #79 of 131 in VA (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Mathews County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Mathews County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,829 (14.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.86%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $279,000
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -46.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $26,596
• Equity at exit: $67,446

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $82,531
• Equity at exit: $103,943

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23025

• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,278 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $307/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,107

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $220	-5% $178	+0% $135	+5% $-79	+10% $-130
Rent	-10% $34	-5% $85	+0% $135	+5% $186	+10% $236
Rate	-1.0pp $211	-0.5pp $173	base $135	+0.5pp $96	+1.0pp $57

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $150,000 Under Contract 113 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $150,000 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $150,000 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $150,000 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-05-13
   status Active 744-char remark

   Show marketing remark (744 chars)

   Great opportunity for a first-time buyer, retiree, or investor in peaceful Mathews County. Offered at $150,000, this manufactured home has been fully bricked around, giving the appearance of a classic brick rancher with low-maintenance appeal. Located in a quiet setting near the Mobjack Bay and Chesapeake Bay, this property offers easy access to nearby marinas and boating on the East River, making it ideal for those who enjoy coastal living, fishing, or simply the slower pace Mathews County is known for. Whether you're looking for an affordable primary residence, a weekend getaway, or an investment opportunity, this property offers strong potential at an accessible price point. Flex room is currently used as a third bedroom by tenant.

6. 2026-05-13
   status Active 744-char remark

   Show marketing remark (744 chars)

   Great opportunity for a first-time buyer, retiree, or investor in peaceful Mathews County. Offered at $150,000, this manufactured home has been fully bricked around, giving the appearance of a classic brick rancher with low-maintenance appeal. Located in a quiet setting near the Mobjack Bay and Chesapeake Bay, this property offers easy access to nearby marinas and boating on the East River, making it ideal for those who enjoy coastal living, fishing, or simply the slower pace Mathews County is known for. Whether you're looking for an affordable primary residence, a weekend getaway, or an investment opportunity, this property offers strong potential at an accessible price point. Flex room is currently used as a third bedroom by tenant.

7. 2026-05-13
   status Active

   Show marketing remark (744 chars)

   Great opportunity for a first-time buyer, retiree, or investor in peaceful Mathews County. Offered at $150,000, this manufactured home has been fully bricked around, giving the appearance of a classic brick rancher with low-maintenance appeal. Located in a quiet setting near the Mobjack Bay and Chesapeake Bay, this property offers easy access to nearby marinas and boating on the East River, making it ideal for those who enjoy coastal living, fishing, or simply the slower pace Mathews County is known for. Whether you're looking for an affordable primary residence, a weekend getaway, or an investment opportunity, this property offers strong potential at an accessible price point. Flex room is currently used as a third bedroom by tenant.

8. 2026-04-15
   historical Active Under Contract 744-char remark

   Show marketing remark (744 chars)

   Great opportunity for a first-time buyer, retiree, or investor in peaceful Mathews County. Offered at $150,000, this manufactured home has been fully bricked around, giving the appearance of a classic brick rancher with low-maintenance appeal. Located in a quiet setting near the Mobjack Bay and Chesapeake Bay, this property offers easy access to nearby marinas and boating on the East River, making it ideal for those who enjoy coastal living, fishing, or simply the slower pace Mathews County is known for. Whether you're looking for an affordable primary residence, a weekend getaway, or an investment opportunity, this property offers strong potential at an accessible price point. Flex room is currently used as a third bedroom by tenant.

9. 2026-04-15
   status Pending 744-char remark

   Show marketing remark (744 chars)

   Great opportunity for a first-time buyer, retiree, or investor in peaceful Mathews County. Offered at $150,000, this manufactured home has been fully bricked around, giving the appearance of a classic brick rancher with low-maintenance appeal. Located in a quiet setting near the Mobjack Bay and Chesapeake Bay, this property offers easy access to nearby marinas and boating on the East River, making it ideal for those who enjoy coastal living, fishing, or simply the slower pace Mathews County is known for. Whether you're looking for an affordable primary residence, a weekend getaway, or an investment opportunity, this property offers strong potential at an accessible price point. Flex room is currently used as a third bedroom by tenant.

10. 2026-04-15
    historical Active Under Contract

    Show marketing remark (744 chars)

    Great opportunity for a first-time buyer, retiree, or investor in peaceful Mathews County. Offered at $150,000, this manufactured home has been fully bricked around, giving the appearance of a classic brick rancher with low-maintenance appeal. Located in a quiet setting near the Mobjack Bay and Chesapeake Bay, this property offers easy access to nearby marinas and boating on the East River, making it ideal for those who enjoy coastal living, fishing, or simply the slower pace Mathews County is known for. Whether you're looking for an affordable primary residence, a weekend getaway, or an investment opportunity, this property offers strong potential at an accessible price point. Flex room is currently used as a third bedroom by tenant.

11. 2026-02-09
    listed $150,000 Active 744-char remark

    Show marketing remark (744 chars)

    Great opportunity for a first-time buyer, retiree, or investor in peaceful Mathews County. Offered at $150,000, this manufactured home has been fully bricked around, giving the appearance of a classic brick rancher with low-maintenance appeal. Located in a quiet setting near the Mobjack Bay and Chesapeake Bay, this property offers easy access to nearby marinas and boating on the East River, making it ideal for those who enjoy coastal living, fishing, or simply the slower pace Mathews County is known for. Whether you're looking for an affordable primary residence, a weekend getaway, or an investment opportunity, this property offers strong potential at an accessible price point. Flex room is currently used as a third bedroom by tenant.

12. 2026-02-09
    listed $150,000 Active 744-char remark

    Show marketing remark (744 chars)

    Great opportunity for a first-time buyer, retiree, or investor in peaceful Mathews County. Offered at $150,000, this manufactured home has been fully bricked around, giving the appearance of a classic brick rancher with low-maintenance appeal. Located in a quiet setting near the Mobjack Bay and Chesapeake Bay, this property offers easy access to nearby marinas and boating on the East River, making it ideal for those who enjoy coastal living, fishing, or simply the slower pace Mathews County is known for. Whether you're looking for an affordable primary residence, a weekend getaway, or an investment opportunity, this property offers strong potential at an accessible price point. Flex room is currently used as a third bedroom by tenant.

13. 2026-02-09
    listed $150,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (744 chars)

    Great opportunity for a first-time buyer, retiree, or investor in peaceful Mathews County. Offered at $150,000, this manufactured home has been fully bricked around, giving the appearance of a classic brick rancher with low-maintenance appeal. Located in a quiet setting near the Mobjack Bay and Chesapeake Bay, this property offers easy access to nearby marinas and boating on the East River, making it ideal for those who enjoy coastal living, fishing, or simply the slower pace Mathews County is known for. Whether you're looking for an affordable primary residence, a weekend getaway, or an investment opportunity, this property offers strong potential at an accessible price point. Flex room is currently used as a third bedroom by tenant.

14. 2024-01-02
    price $150,000
15. 2023-07-01
    price $155,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $307 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,230 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$923/yr (+$77/mo · 300.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,339
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$307
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,227
• − Management: −$1,227
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$938
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$225
• After-tax cash flow: $1,847/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mathews County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102430
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,875
• Composite: 46.66/100
• National rank: #2407
• State rank: #79 of 131 in VA

Livability — Mathews

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #396
• US rank: #16333

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,525
• Population (ZIP): 686

Population outlook (Mathews County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,597 people
• By 2030: 8,385 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 7,842 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 7,315 · -14.9%
• By 2075: 7,064 · -17.8%
• By 2100: 6,858 · -20.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 15%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Danish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mathews

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -28.0pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+35.6 2016: R+36.9 2012: R+31.3 2008: R+28.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-3.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2026-05-13 Relisted — CBRAR
• 2026-05-13 Relisted — WMLS
• 2026-04-15 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2026-04-15 Pending — CBRAR
• 2026-04-15 Contingent — WMLS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $150,000 CBRAR
• 2026-02-09 Listed $150,000 WMLS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $150,000 REINMLS
• 2024-01-02 Price Changed $150,000 CBRAR
• 2023-07-01 Price Changed $155,000 CBRAR

Property tax history

-7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $307 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.