16 Sleepy Hollow Dr

Terminous, CA 95242

$249,950C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Built 1987 · Land · Pending · 174 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,551/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$774
• HOA: −$286
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$536
• Net cashflow: $-356/mo
• Annual: $-4,273/yr
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.21%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $69,986

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-356 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (25.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $187k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,100 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime D, employment D, amenities F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ellerth E. Larson Elementary (math 42% / reading 48%, grade D-, #490 of 1,571 statewide, top 31%, 858 students, 59% FRL); Lodi Middle (math 19% / reading 33%, grade F, #256 of 498 statewide, top 52%, 898 students, 80% FRL); Tokay High (math 31% / reading 49%, grade F, #514 of 1,170 statewide, top 44%, 2,059 students, 68% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 201 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $205k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?