16 Sleepy Hollow Dr · Terminous, CA 95242

$249,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Land public records · 174 Days on market

Built 1987 5,040 sqft lot $237/sqft · 20% above area Est $326k · 23% under $286/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tower Park Home on Owned Land! Welcome to this spacious manufactured home located in the highly desirable Tower Park community and best of all, it sits on owned land, eliminating space rent! Offering approximately 1,650 sq. ft. , this home features 3 bedrooms with the flexibility for a 4th thanks to an enclosed patio that expands the living space and provides options for extra bedrooms, a home office, or hobby room. A rare find, the property includes a 4-car garage plus a large driveway, giving you ample room for vehicles, boats, or recreational toys. The Tower Park HOA provides an impressive range of amenities including a swimming pool, tennis courts, clubhouse with weight room, library,

Key facts

• Large driveway
• 4 car garage
• Clubhouse

Tags

• ENCLOSED PATIO
• 4 CAR GARAGE
• LARGE DRIVEWAY
• SWIMMING POOL
• TENNIS COURTS
• CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-356 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (25.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $187k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,100 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime D, employment D, amenities F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ellerth E. Larson Elementary (math 42% / reading 48%, grade D-, #490 of 1,571 statewide, top 31%, 858 students, 59% FRL); Lodi Middle (math 19% / reading 33%, grade F, #256 of 498 statewide, top 52%, 898 students, 80% FRL); Tokay High (math 31% / reading 49%, grade F, #514 of 1,170 statewide, top 44%, 2,059 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 201 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $205k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,045 (25.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.21%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $325,573
• List price: $249,950
• Delta: -23.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-59,527
• Equity at exit: $37,268

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-65,717
• Equity at exit: $21,611

Cash invested: $69,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95242

• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 201
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,551 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$244 /mo · $2,924/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$286
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$536
• Net cashflow: $-356

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,001

Max offer price $187,045

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-215	-5% $-285	+0% $-356	+5% $-427	+10% $-498
Rent	-10% $-558	-5% $-457	+0% $-356	+5% $-255	+10% $-155
Rate	-1.0pp $-230	-0.5pp $-293	base $-356	+0.5pp $-421	+1.0pp $-487

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,488
• Closing costs: $7,498
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1 Robin Ct Lodi, CA	2.0	2.0	1368	$1,800	$1.32	0d	1	0.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $286 · $3,432/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 3 events

1. 2018-02-01
   soldstatus $205,000
2. 1990-03-01
   soldstatus $95,000
3. 1988-05-31
   soldstatus $56,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,924 · $244/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,924 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 26 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,608
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,001
• − Property taxes: −$2,924
• − Insurance: −$6,368
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,449
• − Management: −$2,449
• − HOA: −$3,432
• − Depreciation: −$7,271
• Taxable loss: −$8,286
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,989
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,285/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lodi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,165
• Composite: 26.84/100
• National rank: #7108
• State rank: #325 of 517 in CA

Livability — Terminous

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1100
• US rank: #25404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Terminous, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 28,427
• Household income: $104,721
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 778.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -488.67%
• Current HPI: 265.9974
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.24%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+266.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2018-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records
• 1990-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 1988-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,924 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.