905 E Elizabeth

Barstow, CA 92311

$200,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,066 sqft · Built 1954 · SingleFamily · Active · 196 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,568/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$277
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $-87/mo
• Annual: $-1,044/yr
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.86%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-87 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (21.6% below list).
• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $157k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#444 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Barstow Unified (town): math 11% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #482 of 517 in CA (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cameron Elementary (math 8% / reading 11%, grade F, #1,539 of 1,571 statewide, top 98%, 571 students, 90% FRL); Barstow Junior High (math 4% / reading 13%, grade F, #495 of 498 statewide, top 100%, 742 students, 80% FRL); Barstow High (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #618 of 1,170 statewide, top 56%, 1,584 students, 67% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 349 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 9 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.5% in Barstow — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?