3 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,367 sqft ·
Built 1977
· Condo
· Active
· 836 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,864/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$970
Tax + insurance
−$308
HOA
−$519
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$391
Net cashflow
$-324/mo
Annual
$-3,894/yr
Cap rate
4.19%
Cash-on-cash
-7.52%
DSCR
0.67
1% rule
1.01%
Cash to close
$51,772
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $185k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-324 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $138k (25.4% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
It's been on market 836 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $138k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 86/100 on livability (#12 in FL, #360 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Ventura Elementary (math 26% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 596 students, 66% FRL); Roberto Clemente Middle (math 31% / reading 36%, grade F, #428 of 571 statewide, top 76%, 951 students, 63% FRL); Colonial High (math 16% / reading 33%, grade F, #505 of 667 statewide, top 79%, 3,442 students, 62% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Orange average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 576 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 60d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.1% in Orlando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 836 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
CashFlowRE · CFR-Z930E69HA9X4QS
· Data 4 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29