9851 Cranston Rd

Morehead, KY 40351

$118,000C-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 104 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,015/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$619
• Tax + insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $96/mo
• Annual: $1,155/yr
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.50%
• DSCR: 1.16
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $33,040

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $118k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $96 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $102k (14.0% below list).
• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $102k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $816 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#345 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, housing D.
• Rowan County (rural): math 28% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #74 of 165 in KY (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Rowan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rowan County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $118k implies a 136% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.7% in Morehead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.