9851 Cranston Rd · Morehead, KY 40351

$118,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 104 Days on market

3.00 ac lot $148/sqft · 16% below area Est $141k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away on approximately 3 wooded acres, this charming A-frame getaway offers the perfect blend of privacy, character and convenience. Located just ½ mile from Brooklyn Belle Market on Cranston and 6 minutes from the Sheltowee Trace Northern Terminus in the Daniel Boone National Forest, you'll enjoy a peaceful setting while still being close to local essentials. The cabin features 2 bedrooms and 1½ bathrooms with a warm, inviting interior that captures the classic A-frame feel. A mini-split system provides efficient heating and cooling, while a wall-mounted propane gas heater adds extra warmth and coziness during cooler months. The property is being sold fully furnished, making it truly turnkey whether you're looking for a weekend retreat, vacation rental opportunity or a quiet full-time escape. Situated on approximately 3 acres with no deed restrictions, the property offers flexibility and plenty of space to relax, unwind and enjoy the surrounding natural setting. This property is just 20 minutes from Cave Run Lake.

Key facts

• Mini-split system
• Wooded acres
• Fully furnished

Tags

• WOODED ACRES
• MINI-SPLIT SYSTEM
• FULLY FURNISHED
• NO DEED RESTRICTIONS
• VACATION RENTAL OPPORTUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $118k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $96 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $102k (14.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $102k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.7% in Morehead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#345 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, housing D.
• Rowan County (rural): math 28% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #74 of 165 in KY (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Rowan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $816 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rowan County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $118k implies a 136% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,525 (14.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.50%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $140,783
• List price: $118,000
• Delta: -16.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-13,043
• Equity at exit: $17,594

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-3,676
• Equity at exit: $10,202

Cash invested: $33,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40351

• Home prices YoY: -22.6%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,015 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$619
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $454/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $96

Break-even live

Break-even rent $893

Max offer price $118,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $163	-5% $130	+0% $96	+5% $63	+10% $29
Rent	-10% $16	-5% $56	+0% $96	+5% $136	+10% $176
Rate	-1.0pp $156	-0.5pp $126	base $96	+0.5pp $66	+1.0pp $35

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,500
• Closing costs: $3,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $118,000 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $118,000 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $118,000 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   price $118,000 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,000 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,000 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $129,000 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,000 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 93 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,000 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 86 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 85 DOM
18. 2026-05-14
    price $129,000 1052-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1052 chars)

    Tucked away on approximately 3 wooded acres, this charming A-frame getaway offers the perfect blend of privacy, character and convenience. Located just ½ mile from Brooklyn Belle Market on Cranston and 6 minutes from the Sheltowee Trace Northern Terminus in the Daniel Boone National Forest, you'll enjoy a peaceful setting while still being close to local essentials. The cabin features 2 bedrooms and 1½ bathrooms with a warm, inviting interior that captures the classic A-frame feel. A mini-split system provides efficient heating and cooling, while a wall-mounted propane gas heater adds extra warmth and coziness during cooler months. The property is being sold fully furnished, making it truly turnkey whether you're looking for a weekend retreat, vacation rental opportunity or a quiet full-time escape. Situated on approximately 3 acres with no deed restrictions, the property offers flexibility and plenty of space to relax, unwind and enjoy the surrounding natural setting. This property is just 20 minutes from Cave Run Lake.

19. 2026-04-29
    status Active 1052-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1052 chars)

    Tucked away on approximately 3 wooded acres, this charming A-frame getaway offers the perfect blend of privacy, character and convenience. Located just ½ mile from Brooklyn Belle Market on Cranston and 6 minutes from the Sheltowee Trace Northern Terminus in the Daniel Boone National Forest, you'll enjoy a peaceful setting while still being close to local essentials. The cabin features 2 bedrooms and 1½ bathrooms with a warm, inviting interior that captures the classic A-frame feel. A mini-split system provides efficient heating and cooling, while a wall-mounted propane gas heater adds extra warmth and coziness during cooler months. The property is being sold fully furnished, making it truly turnkey whether you're looking for a weekend retreat, vacation rental opportunity or a quiet full-time escape. Situated on approximately 3 acres with no deed restrictions, the property offers flexibility and plenty of space to relax, unwind and enjoy the surrounding natural setting. This property is just 20 minutes from Cave Run Lake.

20. 2026-04-20
    historical Contingent 1052-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1052 chars)

    Tucked away on approximately 3 wooded acres, this charming A-frame getaway offers the perfect blend of privacy, character and convenience. Located just ½ mile from Brooklyn Belle Market on Cranston and 6 minutes from the Sheltowee Trace Northern Terminus in the Daniel Boone National Forest, you'll enjoy a peaceful setting while still being close to local essentials. The cabin features 2 bedrooms and 1½ bathrooms with a warm, inviting interior that captures the classic A-frame feel. A mini-split system provides efficient heating and cooling, while a wall-mounted propane gas heater adds extra warmth and coziness during cooler months. The property is being sold fully furnished, making it truly turnkey whether you're looking for a weekend retreat, vacation rental opportunity or a quiet full-time escape. Situated on approximately 3 acres with no deed restrictions, the property offers flexibility and plenty of space to relax, unwind and enjoy the surrounding natural setting. This property is just 20 minutes from Cave Run Lake.

21. 2026-04-10
    price $138,000 1052-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1052 chars)

    Tucked away on approximately 3 wooded acres, this charming A-frame getaway offers the perfect blend of privacy, character and convenience. Located just ½ mile from Brooklyn Belle Market on Cranston and 6 minutes from the Sheltowee Trace Northern Terminus in the Daniel Boone National Forest, you'll enjoy a peaceful setting while still being close to local essentials. The cabin features 2 bedrooms and 1½ bathrooms with a warm, inviting interior that captures the classic A-frame feel. A mini-split system provides efficient heating and cooling, while a wall-mounted propane gas heater adds extra warmth and coziness during cooler months. The property is being sold fully furnished, making it truly turnkey whether you're looking for a weekend retreat, vacation rental opportunity or a quiet full-time escape. Situated on approximately 3 acres with no deed restrictions, the property offers flexibility and plenty of space to relax, unwind and enjoy the surrounding natural setting. This property is just 20 minutes from Cave Run Lake.

22. 2026-03-04
    listed $148,000 Active 1052-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1052 chars)

    Tucked away on approximately 3 wooded acres, this charming A-frame getaway offers the perfect blend of privacy, character and convenience. Located just ½ mile from Brooklyn Belle Market on Cranston and 6 minutes from the Sheltowee Trace Northern Terminus in the Daniel Boone National Forest, you'll enjoy a peaceful setting while still being close to local essentials. The cabin features 2 bedrooms and 1½ bathrooms with a warm, inviting interior that captures the classic A-frame feel. A mini-split system provides efficient heating and cooling, while a wall-mounted propane gas heater adds extra warmth and coziness during cooler months. The property is being sold fully furnished, making it truly turnkey whether you're looking for a weekend retreat, vacation rental opportunity or a quiet full-time escape. Situated on approximately 3 acres with no deed restrictions, the property offers flexibility and plenty of space to relax, unwind and enjoy the surrounding natural setting. This property is just 20 minutes from Cave Run Lake.

23. 2015-10-12
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $454 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,015 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$561/yr (+$47/mo · 123.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,183
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,610
• − Property taxes: −$454
• − Insurance: −$590
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$975
• − Management: −$975
• − Depreciation: −$3,433
• Taxable loss: −$853
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$205
• After-tax cash flow: $1,360/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rowan County
• NCES district ID: 2105100
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $35,139
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6742
• State rank: #74 of 165 in KY

Livability — Morehead

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #345
• US rank: #16479

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing D Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rowan County · 22,322 people
• City population: 22,322
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 22,322
• Household income: $51,835
• Rent vs Own: 37.6% rent · 62.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 589.0

Population outlook (Rowan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,518 people
• By 2030: 29,242 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 32,949 · +19.7%
• By 2050: 37,128 · +34.9%
• By 2075: 49,130 · +78.5%
• By 2100: 59,014 · +114.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Rowan

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.8) · D 35.3% · R 63.0% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: 2.0pp · 2024: -27.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.8 2020: R+21.0 2016: R+21.3 2012: R+7.8 2008: D+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.28%
• Current HPI: 203.0786
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+158.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $129,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-29 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-20 Contingent — ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $138,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $148,000 ImagineMLS
• 2015-10-12 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records