149 Larrabee Rd

Scotia, NY 12302

$196,000D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 988 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,741/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,028
• Tax + insurance: −$363
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $-15/mo
• Annual: $-183/yr
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.33%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $54,880

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $196k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15 ($-183/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (11.2% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $174k (11.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#173 in NY, #2,688 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: crime D, amenities D, commute F.
• Scotia-Glenville Central School District (suburban): math 57% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #193 of 590 in NY (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Sacandaga School (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 320 students, 37% FRL); Scotia-Glenville Middle School (math 29% / reading 62%, grade D+, #337 of 729 statewide, top 47%, 506 students, 39% FRL); Scotia-Glenville Senior High School (math 92% / reading 95%, grade A+, #131 of 1,100 statewide, top 13%, 736 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 37% FRL vs 19% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 154 units permitted in Schenectady County in 2024 (54 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Schenectady County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $51k; list at $196k implies a 284% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.3% in Scotia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.