149 Larrabee Rd · Scotia, NY 12302

$196,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 988 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1968 8,712 sqft lot Est $225k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well-maintained and move-in ready home located in the highly desirable Scotia-Glenville School District. This inviting property is in great condition and offers an excellent opportunity for first-time homebuyers, downsizers, or anyone seeking a comfortable home with the ability to add their own personal style over time. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, parks, and major roadways, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and value. A wonderful opportunity to own in one of the area's most sought after school districts!

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• 3 parking spots
• Built 1968

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $196k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15 ($-183/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (11.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (11.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.3% in Scotia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#173 in NY, #2,688 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: crime D, amenities D, commute F.
• Scotia-Glenville Central School District (suburban): math 57% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #193 of 590 in NY (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Sacandaga School (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 320 students, 37% FRL); Scotia-Glenville Middle School (math 29% / reading 62%, grade D+, #337 of 729 statewide, top 47%, 506 students, 39% FRL); Scotia-Glenville Senior High School (math 92% / reading 95%, grade A+, #131 of 1,100 statewide, top 13%, 736 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 37% FRL vs 19% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 154 units permitted in Schenectady County in 2024 (54 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Schenectady County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $51k; list at $196k implies a 284% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,130 (11.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.33%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $225,264
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
149 Larrabee Rd	0.00mi	2/1.0	988 (0%)	1mo	$201,000	$203	99
336 Gardinier St	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,116 (+13%)	10mo	$255,000	$228	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-32,685
• Equity at exit: $29,224

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-29,517
• Equity at exit: $16,946

Cash invested: $54,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12302

• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,741 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,028
• Tax from tax record: −$281 /mo · $3,377/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $-15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,761

Max offer price $193,301

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $96	-5% $40	+0% $-15	+5% $-71	+10% $-126
Rent	-10% $-153	-5% $-84	+0% $-15	+5% $54	+10% $122
Rate	-1.0pp $83	-0.5pp $35	base $-15	+0.5pp $-66	+1.0pp $-118

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,000
• Closing costs: $5,880
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   listed $196,000 Active
3. 2021-04-27
   soldstatus $51,000
4. 2003-03-28
   soldstatus $32,750

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,377 · $281/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,377 · $281/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,896
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,979
• − Property taxes: −$3,377
• − Insurance: −$980
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,672
• − Management: −$1,672
• − Depreciation: −$5,702
• Taxable loss: −$3,485
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$836
• After-tax cash flow: $653/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Scotia-Glenville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3626310
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $62,663
• Composite: 54.32/100
• National rank: #1367
• State rank: #193 of 590 in NY

Livability — Scotia

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #173
• US rank: #2688

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime D Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Schenectady County · 141,369 people
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• Population (ZIP): 28,031
• Household income: $98,163
• Rent vs Own: 24.2% rent · 75.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 632.0

Population outlook (Schenectady County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 155,046 people
• By 2030: 154,322 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 151,796 · -2.1%
• By 2050: 148,621 · -4.1%
• By 2075: 141,229 · -8.9%
• By 2100: 126,014 · -18.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Schenectady

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 55.4% · R 44.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.8pp toward R · 2008: 12.7pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+15.7 2016: D+5.8 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -274.86%
• Current HPI: 304.1765
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+498.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $196,000 Global MLS
• 2021-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records
• 2003-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $32,750 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,377 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.