14201 Winchester Rd Lot W

Cresaptown, MD 21502

$44,900B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Built 2018 · Other · Active · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,272/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax + insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $639/mo
• Annual: $7,670/yr
• Cap rate: 24.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.31%
• DSCR: 3.95
• 1% rule: 2.83%
• Cash to close: $12,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $45k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $639 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $310 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#411 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, crime F.
• Allegany County Public Schools (other): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #18 of 24 in MD (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.9%/yr); 235 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Allegany County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 11 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $11k; list at $45k implies a 308% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.