14201 Winchester Rd Lot W · Cresaptown, MD 21502

$44,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Other · 9 Days on market

Built 2018 $46/sqft · 61% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MOBILE HOME IS FOR SALE AND NOT FOR RENT HOWEVER THE MOBILE HOME IS ON A RENTED LOT" NICE 2018 14X70 MOBILE HOME ON RENTED LOT - FEATURES 3 BEDROOMS & 2 FULL BATHS - SMALL DECK - KITCHEN/DINING ROOM COMBO - LOCATED IN TRADEWINDS MOBILE HOME PARK - CURRENT LOT RENT IS $425.00 PER MONTH PLUS $100.00 TO COVER WATER - TRASH & SEWER - BACK GROUND CHECK ON APPLICANTS UNDER 18 - MOBILE HOME ONLY NO REAL PROPERTY CONVEYS

Key facts

• Built 2018
• Listed 8 days

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $44,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$116,458) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $639 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#411 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, crime F.
• Allegany County Public Schools (other): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #18 of 24 in MD (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.9%/yr); 235 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $310 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Allegany County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 11 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $11k; list at $45k implies a 308% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.31%
• DSCR: 3.95
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $116,458
• List price: $44,900
• Delta: -61.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 65.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.20×
• Total profit: $40,208
• Equity at exit: $6,695

10-year hold

• IRR: 71.8%
• Equity multiple: 10.41×
• Total profit: $118,244
• Equity at exit: $3,882

Cash invested: $12,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21502

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: 10.9%
• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,272 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $674/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $639

Break-even live

Break-even rent $463

Max offer price $44,900

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,225
• Closing costs: $1,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $44,900 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $44,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $44,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $44,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $44,900 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $44,900 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on marketlisting id $44,900 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-05-08
   historical
9. 2026-02-06
   price $44,900
10. 2026-01-06
    historical
11. 2025-11-17
    price $18,900
12. 2025-11-12
    price $49,900
13. 2025-11-07
    listed $54,900 Active
14. 2025-10-28
    historical
15. 2025-10-02
    historical
16. 2025-09-30
    price $22,500
17. 2025-09-26
    price $20,000
18. 2025-09-26
    price $20,000
19. 2025-09-26
    listed $29,900 Active
20. 2025-09-26
    listed $29,900 Active
21. 2025-09-24
    historical
22. 2025-09-24
    historical
23. 2016-06-09
    historical
24. 2016-06-09
    historical
25. 2015-11-12
    price
26. 2015-08-19
    status Active
27. 2015-07-10
    historical Temporarily Off-Market
28. 2014-09-18
    listed Active
29. 2014-09-18
    listed $799,900
30. 2014-05-29
    historical Withdrawn
31. 2013-06-21
    listed Active
32. 2013-03-05
    historical
33. 2012-07-21
    listed Active
34. 2005-01-26
    soldstatus $11,000
35. 2005-01-25
    historical
36. 2004-06-19
    listed $12,000
37. 2002-06-28
    soldstatus $20,000
38. 2002-06-22
    historical
39. 2002-01-11
    listed $23,900
40. 2001-12-01
    soldstatus $12,600
41. 2001-11-29
    historical
42. 2001-10-22
    listed $13,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,265
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,515
• − Property taxes: −$674
• − Insurance: −$891
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,221
• − Management: −$1,221
• − Depreciation: −$1,306
• Taxable income: $7,437
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,785
• After-tax cash flow: $5,885/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Allegany County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400030
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $39,760
• Composite: 18.95/100
• National rank: #8854
• State rank: #18 of 24 in MD

Livability — Cresaptown

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #411
• US rank: #22931

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Allegany County · 41,015 people
• City population: 41,015
• Metro: Cumberland, MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 41,015
• Household income: $60,725
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 824.0

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,778 people
• By 2030: 66,766 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 62,784 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 59,179 · -14.0%
• By 2075: 50,732 · -26.2%
• By 2100: 40,837 · -40.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 9% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.3) · D 28.9% · R 69.2% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -25.9pp · 2024: -40.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.3 2020: R+38.3 2016: R+48.0 2012: R+32.9 2008: R+25.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.33%
• Current HPI: 258.6676
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.88%
• Metro: Cumberland, MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+232.6% since first listed

35 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $44,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-06 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $18,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $49,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-07 Listed $54,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-02 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $22,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $20,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $20,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-26 Listed $29,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-26 Listed $29,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-24 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-24 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-06-09 Delisted — MRIS
• 2016-06-09 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-11-12 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2015-08-19 Relisted — MRIS
• 2015-07-10 Delisted — MRIS
• 2014-09-18 Listed — MRIS
• 2014-09-18 Listed $799,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-05-29 Delisted — MRIS
• 2013-06-21 Listed — MRIS
• 2013-03-05 Delisted — MRIS
• 2012-07-21 Listed — MRIS
• 2005-01-26 Sold (MLS) $11,000 MRIS
• 2005-01-25 Delisted — MRIS
• 2004-06-19 Listed $12,000 MRIS
• 2002-06-28 Sold (MLS) $20,000 MRIS
• 2002-06-22 Delisted — MRIS
• 2002-01-11 Listed $23,900 MRIS
• 2001-12-01 Sold (MLS) $12,600 MRIS
• 2001-11-29 Delisted — MRIS
• 2001-10-22 Listed $13,500 MRIS

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,832 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.