28 Partridge Ln

Shrub Oak, NY 10579

$600,000C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,210 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Pending · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,604/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax + insurance: −$1,410
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$967
• Net cashflow: $-920/mo
• Annual: $-11,036/yr
• Cap rate: 4.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.57%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $168,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $600k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-920 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $438k (27.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $460k (23.3% below list).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($591k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $438k (27.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $64k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $60k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#342 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Mahopac Central School District (suburban): math 61% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #156 of 590 in NY (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Austin Road Elementary School (math 42% / reading 67%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 585 students, 22% FRL); Mahopac Middle School (math 56% / reading 70%, grade B+, #129 of 729 statewide, top 18%, 926 students, 24% FRL); Mahopac High School (math 97% / reading 72%, grade A, #379 of 1,100 statewide, top 36%, 1,254 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 8% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 142 units permitted in Putnam County in 2024 (75 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Putnam County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $81k; list at $600k implies a 641% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$103k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.