22684 Forest Ln

Hermitage, MO 65668

$50,000B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 550 sqft · Built 1968 · Manufactured · Active · 416 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $900/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$15
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$189
• Net cashflow: $350/mo
• Annual: $4,204/yr
• Cap rate: 14.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.03%
• DSCR: 2.34
• 1% rule: 1.80%
• Cash to close: $14,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $350 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($900 rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 416 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($346 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (9.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#788 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Hermitage R-IV (rural): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #185 of 535 in MO (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP.
• Hickory County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (44%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (9.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 14.7% vs local median 3.3% in Hermitage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 416 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.