22684 Forest Ln · Hermitage, MO 65668

$50,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 550 sqft · Manufactured public records · 416 Days on market

Built 1968 10,019 sqft lot $15/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 44% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable Lakeside Retreat with Big Potential!Don't miss your chance to own this manufactured home located in a peaceful subdivision with friendly neighbors and a relaxing atmosphere. This as-is property offers a fantastic opportunity for those looking to customize a lakeside retreat. Enjoy partial views of Pomme de Terre Lake right from your large deck--perfect for morning coffee or sunset evenings. The vintage louvered windows are original, adding a unique and charming feature. They come with interchangeable screens and glass panels for seasonal use. No long gravel roads here--just a short, easy drive from the highway right to your doorstep. This home features a short walkway to water access just down the road, and a nearby private cove that's perfect for launching your canoe or peaceful fishing. All furnishings are included, so you can move right in or begin renovations immediately. You're also just minutes from Nemo Campground and Marina, where you'll find a boat ramp and all the lake supplies you need. There are nearby shops and stores to keep your family enjoying the lake life. Lucas Oil Speedway is less than 15 minutes away, offering fast-paced fun and events. * * Important Note: Use of the well/water system will be shut off annually from December 1st through March 1st. * * Whether you're looking for a short-term rental getaway, seasonal escape for yourself, or a project with potential, this property has the bones to become something truly special. Come see the possibilities!

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 1968
• Listed 415 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $350 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($900 rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.7% vs local median 3.3% in Hermitage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#788 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Hermitage R-IV (rural): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #185 of 535 in MO (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($346 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (9.3% local appreciation)).
• Hickory County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 416 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (44%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $44,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 416 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.03%
• DSCR: 2.34
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.3% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.37×
• Total profit: $47,200
• Equity at exit: $42,525

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.4%
• Equity multiple: 9.64×
• Total profit: $120,959
• Equity at exit: $89,153

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65668

• Home prices YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$15
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$189
• Net cashflow: $350

Break-even live

Break-even rent $456

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $15 · $180/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $50,000 Active 416 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $50,000 Active 415 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $50,000 Active 414 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active 413 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $50,000 Active 411 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $50,000 Active 410 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $50,000 Active 407 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $50,000 Active 406 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $50,000 Active 405 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $50,000 Active 404 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $50,000 Active 401 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $50,000 Active 400 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 399 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 398 DOM
15. 2026-05-02
    status Active 1510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1510 chars)

    Affordable Lakeside Retreat with Big Potential!Don't miss your chance to own this manufactured home located in a peaceful subdivision with friendly neighbors and a relaxing atmosphere. This as-is property offers a fantastic opportunity for those looking to customize a lakeside retreat. Enjoy partial views of Pomme de Terre Lake right from your large deck--perfect for morning coffee or sunset evenings. The vintage louvered windows are original, adding a unique and charming feature. They come with interchangeable screens and glass panels for seasonal use. No long gravel roads here--just a short, easy drive from the highway right to your doorstep. This home features a short walkway to water access just down the road, and a nearby private cove that's perfect for launching your canoe or peaceful fishing. All furnishings are included, so you can move right in or begin renovations immediately. You're also just minutes from Nemo Campground and Marina, where you'll find a boat ramp and all the lake supplies you need. There are nearby shops and stores to keep your family enjoying the lake life. Lucas Oil Speedway is less than 15 minutes away, offering fast-paced fun and events. * * Important Note: Use of the well/water system will be shut off annually from December 1st through March 1st. * * Whether you're looking for a short-term rental getaway, seasonal escape for yourself, or a project with potential, this property has the bones to become something truly special. Come see the possibilities!

16. 2025-10-30
    price $50,000 1510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1510 chars)

    Affordable Lakeside Retreat with Big Potential!Don't miss your chance to own this manufactured home located in a peaceful subdivision with friendly neighbors and a relaxing atmosphere. This as-is property offers a fantastic opportunity for those looking to customize a lakeside retreat. Enjoy partial views of Pomme de Terre Lake right from your large deck--perfect for morning coffee or sunset evenings. The vintage louvered windows are original, adding a unique and charming feature. They come with interchangeable screens and glass panels for seasonal use. No long gravel roads here--just a short, easy drive from the highway right to your doorstep. This home features a short walkway to water access just down the road, and a nearby private cove that's perfect for launching your canoe or peaceful fishing. All furnishings are included, so you can move right in or begin renovations immediately. You're also just minutes from Nemo Campground and Marina, where you'll find a boat ramp and all the lake supplies you need. There are nearby shops and stores to keep your family enjoying the lake life. Lucas Oil Speedway is less than 15 minutes away, offering fast-paced fun and events. * * Important Note: Use of the well/water system will be shut off annually from December 1st through March 1st. * * Whether you're looking for a short-term rental getaway, seasonal escape for yourself, or a project with potential, this property has the bones to become something truly special. Come see the possibilities!

17. 2025-08-07
    price $65,000 1510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1510 chars)

    Affordable Lakeside Retreat with Big Potential!Don't miss your chance to own this manufactured home located in a peaceful subdivision with friendly neighbors and a relaxing atmosphere. This as-is property offers a fantastic opportunity for those looking to customize a lakeside retreat. Enjoy partial views of Pomme de Terre Lake right from your large deck--perfect for morning coffee or sunset evenings. The vintage louvered windows are original, adding a unique and charming feature. They come with interchangeable screens and glass panels for seasonal use. No long gravel roads here--just a short, easy drive from the highway right to your doorstep. This home features a short walkway to water access just down the road, and a nearby private cove that's perfect for launching your canoe or peaceful fishing. All furnishings are included, so you can move right in or begin renovations immediately. You're also just minutes from Nemo Campground and Marina, where you'll find a boat ramp and all the lake supplies you need. There are nearby shops and stores to keep your family enjoying the lake life. Lucas Oil Speedway is less than 15 minutes away, offering fast-paced fun and events. * * Important Note: Use of the well/water system will be shut off annually from December 1st through March 1st. * * Whether you're looking for a short-term rental getaway, seasonal escape for yourself, or a project with potential, this property has the bones to become something truly special. Come see the possibilities!

18. 2025-05-22
    price $80,000 1510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1510 chars)

    Affordable Lakeside Retreat with Big Potential!Don't miss your chance to own this manufactured home located in a peaceful subdivision with friendly neighbors and a relaxing atmosphere. This as-is property offers a fantastic opportunity for those looking to customize a lakeside retreat. Enjoy partial views of Pomme de Terre Lake right from your large deck--perfect for morning coffee or sunset evenings. The vintage louvered windows are original, adding a unique and charming feature. They come with interchangeable screens and glass panels for seasonal use. No long gravel roads here--just a short, easy drive from the highway right to your doorstep. This home features a short walkway to water access just down the road, and a nearby private cove that's perfect for launching your canoe or peaceful fishing. All furnishings are included, so you can move right in or begin renovations immediately. You're also just minutes from Nemo Campground and Marina, where you'll find a boat ramp and all the lake supplies you need. There are nearby shops and stores to keep your family enjoying the lake life. Lucas Oil Speedway is less than 15 minutes away, offering fast-paced fun and events. * * Important Note: Use of the well/water system will be shut off annually from December 1st through March 1st. * * Whether you're looking for a short-term rental getaway, seasonal escape for yourself, or a project with potential, this property has the bones to become something truly special. Come see the possibilities!

19. 2025-04-29
    listed $90,000 Active 1510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1510 chars)

    Affordable Lakeside Retreat with Big Potential!Don't miss your chance to own this manufactured home located in a peaceful subdivision with friendly neighbors and a relaxing atmosphere. This as-is property offers a fantastic opportunity for those looking to customize a lakeside retreat. Enjoy partial views of Pomme de Terre Lake right from your large deck--perfect for morning coffee or sunset evenings. The vintage louvered windows are original, adding a unique and charming feature. They come with interchangeable screens and glass panels for seasonal use. No long gravel roads here--just a short, easy drive from the highway right to your doorstep. This home features a short walkway to water access just down the road, and a nearby private cove that's perfect for launching your canoe or peaceful fishing. All furnishings are included, so you can move right in or begin renovations immediately. You're also just minutes from Nemo Campground and Marina, where you'll find a boat ramp and all the lake supplies you need. There are nearby shops and stores to keep your family enjoying the lake life. Lucas Oil Speedway is less than 15 minutes away, offering fast-paced fun and events. * * Important Note: Use of the well/water system will be shut off annually from December 1st through March 1st. * * Whether you're looking for a short-term rental getaway, seasonal escape for yourself, or a project with potential, this property has the bones to become something truly special. Come see the possibilities!

20. 2024-09-18
    listed $89,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,798
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$864
• − Management: −$864
• − HOA: −$180
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $3,635
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$872
• After-tax cash flow: $3,332/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hermitage R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2914310
• Math proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $30,066
• Composite: 40.92/100
• National rank: #7513
• State rank: #185 of 535 in MO

Livability — Hermitage

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #788
• US rank: #23974

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,692

Population outlook (Hickory County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,206 people
• By 2030: 7,690 · -6.3%
• By 2040: 6,780 · -17.4%
• By 2050: 6,076 · -26.0%
• By 2075: 5,088 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 4,489 · -45.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Italian 5% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hickory

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.1) · D 19.1% · R 80.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.9pp toward R · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -61.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.1 2020: R+57.3 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+23.6 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.30%
• Current HPI: 215.6823
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-43.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Relisted — SOMO
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $50,000 SOMO
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $65,000 SOMO
• 2025-05-22 Price Changed $80,000 SOMO
• 2025-04-29 Listed $90,000 SOMO
• 2024-09-18 Listed $89,000 SOMO

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $71 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.