4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
— sqft ·
Built 1958
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 2 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$21,143/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$12,848
Tax + insurance
−$2,290
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$4,440
Net cashflow
$1,565/mo
Annual
$18,775/yr
Cap rate
7.06%
Cash-on-cash
2.74%
DSCR
1.12
1% rule
0.86%
Cash to close
$686,000
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $2.45M.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.11M (13.7% below list).
Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $2.11M (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $45k of equity ($17k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#339 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, crime A-, housing B; Watch: commute C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
Carpinteria Unified (suburban): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #255 of 517 in CA (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Summerland Elementary (math 50% / reading 50%, grade D, #410 of 1,571 statewide, top 28%, 50 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 35% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Carpinteria Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).
Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
6 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $1.10M; list at $2.45M implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $686k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$161k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-ZAPH663FT2PG3H
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29