1019 CR 160

Kenedy, TX 78119

$225,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,309 sqft · Built 1963 · SingleFamily · Active · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,577/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $-76/mo
• Annual: $-911/yr
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.45%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-76 ($-911/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (6.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (29.9% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $158k (29.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#822 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Kenedy ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #698 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Kenedy El (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 356 students, 88% FRL); Kenedy H S (math 54% / reading 27%, grade F, #795 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 220 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 78 units permitted in Karnes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Karnes County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.