1019 CR 160 · Kenedy, TX 78119

$225,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,309 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1963 0.77 ac lot ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Good coastal bermuda cover on rolling terrain, 3 stock tanks provide year round water. Cross fenced for four pastures.; Original MLS#: 101285; Apx Nat Brush: 0.00; Apx Wetlands: 0.00; Deed Restrictions: ; Occupancy: Tenant; Surface Lease: No; Tax Year: 2003; Terrain: Terraced; Total Taxes: 458.00; USDA CRP Program: No; Water District: Yes; Water Rights: No; Zoning: None

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• New ac system
• Country views

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• ENERGY EFFICIENT APPLIANCES
• NEW AC SYSTEM
• COUNTRY VIEWS
• LARGE OPEN BARN
• SPACIOUS ENCLOSED WORKSHOP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Possession at closing/funding; For sale (not a short sale)
• HOA & community: No subdivision

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Septic system; Co-op water; Energy Star certified; Water supplier: El Oso; Electric water heater
• Home design: Pre-owned property; Cement fiber exterior; Composition roof; Approximate age: 63 years
• Construction: Cement fiber exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: County view; Secluded setting; Street paved; County road access; Recent rehab

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove/range; Smooth cook top; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Kitchen dimensions: 12 x 10; Dining area (7 x 8)
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom with multiple closets, ceiling fan and a half bath; Bedroom 2: 11 x 9; Bedroom 3: 11 x 11; Master bedroom dimensions: 12 x 14
• Flooring: Vinyl floor
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath; Master bath with tub/shower combination (8 x 5)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Washer connection; Dryer connection; Garage door opener; Vent fan; Electric water heater; Open floor plan; Living/dining room combination; 1 living area; Shop; Utility area in garage; Ground level / no steps
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection; Utility area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-76 ($-911/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (6.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (29.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (29.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#822 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Kenedy ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #698 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Kenedy El (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 356 students, 88% FRL); Kenedy H S (math 54% / reading 27%, grade F, #795 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 220 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 78 units permitted in Karnes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• Karnes County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $157,688 (29.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.45%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.78% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $7,974
• Equity at exit: $86,089

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $53,581
• Equity at exit: $121,959

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78119

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,577 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $576/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $-76

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,673

Max offer price $211,590

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $225,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,000 New 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 New 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 New 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 New 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 New 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 New 2 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    remarks 690-char remark
14. 2026-05-31
    listed $225,000 New 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $576 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,118 · $343/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,542/yr (+$295/mo · 615.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,923
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$576
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,514
• − Management: −$1,514
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$4,955
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,189
• After-tax cash flow: $278/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenedy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825440
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $40,961
• Composite: 22.43/100
• National rank: #8111
• State rank: #698 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kenedy

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #822
• US rank: #14883

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,023

Population outlook (Karnes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,734 people
• By 2030: 18,027 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 20,893 · +24.9%
• By 2050: 23,689 · +41.6%
• By 2075: 31,064 · +85.6%
• By 2100: 34,752 · +107.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% Two or more races 28% White 25% Black 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 56%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 29% Vietnamese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Karnes

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.1) · D 20.7% · R 78.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.6pp toward R · 2008: -21.6pp · 2024: -58.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.1 2020: R+52.1 2016: R+43.4 2012: R+35.9 2008: R+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Current HPI: 125.8778
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Listed $225,000 LERA
• 2005-05-18 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2004-08-24 Listed $263,280 LERA

Property tax history

-1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $576 · -26.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.