238 Horse Shoe Bend Rd

Bear Rocks, PA 15610

$47,900B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Pending · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $828/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$251
• Tax + insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$174
• Net cashflow: $242/mo
• Annual: $2,906/yr
• Cap rate: 12.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.67%
• DSCR: 1.96
• 1% rule: 1.73%
• Cash to close: $13,412

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $48k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $242 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($828 rent vs $48k).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($46k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $46k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($331 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#890 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Connellsville Area SD (rural): math 23% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #440 of 539 in PA (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 201 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fayette County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $41k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (8.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.