238 Horse Shoe Bend Rd · Bear Rocks, PA 15610

$47,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1968 0.49 ac lot $83/sqft · 57% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable cape cod style home on nearly half an acre of private and wooded land. Finished game room with a laundry area and tons of added storage space.

Key facts

• Private wooded land
• Finished game room
• Added storage space

Tags

• PRIVATE WOODED LAND
• FINISHED GAME ROOM
• ADDED STORAGE SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $48k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $242 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($828 rent vs $48k).
• Recommended offer: $46k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#890 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Connellsville Area SD (rural): math 23% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #440 of 539 in PA (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 201 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($331 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Fayette County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($46k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $41k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price.

Recommended offer $46,463 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.67%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $110,527
• List price: $47,900
• Delta: -56.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

8.66% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.78×
• Total profit: $37,274
• Equity at exit: $38,577

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.23×
• Total profit: $96,981
• Equity at exit: $78,759

Cash invested: $13,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15610

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $828 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$251
• Tax from tax record: −$140 /mo · $1,686/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$174
• Net cashflow: $242

Break-even live

Break-even rent $521

Max offer price $47,900

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,975
• Closing costs: $1,437
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 151-char remark

   Show marketing remark (151 chars)

   Adorable cape cod style home on nearly half an acre of private and wooded land. Finished game room with a laundry area and tons of added storage space.

2. 2026-05-12
   historical Contingent 151-char remark

   Show marketing remark (151 chars)

   Adorable cape cod style home on nearly half an acre of private and wooded land. Finished game room with a laundry area and tons of added storage space.

3. 2026-04-29
   price $47,900 151-char remark

   Show marketing remark (151 chars)

   Adorable cape cod style home on nearly half an acre of private and wooded land. Finished game room with a laundry area and tons of added storage space.

4. 2026-03-19
   listed $52,000 Active 151-char remark

   Show marketing remark (151 chars)

   Adorable cape cod style home on nearly half an acre of private and wooded land. Finished game room with a laundry area and tons of added storage space.

5. 1994-07-28
   soldstatus $41,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,686 · $140/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,686 · $140/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,932
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,683
• − Property taxes: −$1,686
• − Insurance: −$240
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$795
• − Management: −$795
• − Depreciation: −$1,393
• Taxable income: $2,341
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$562
• After-tax cash flow: $2,345/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Connellsville Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4206660
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $39,315
• Composite: 25.95/100
• National rank: #7333
• State rank: #440 of 539 in PA

Livability — Bear Rocks

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #890
• US rank: #9486

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bear Rocks, PA
• Population (ZIP): 4,130

Population outlook (Fayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 127,561 people
• By 2030: 123,206 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 113,232 · -11.2%
• By 2050: 103,468 · -18.9%
• By 2075: 83,185 · -34.8%
• By 2100: 62,384 · -51.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Hungarian 3% Polish 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Fayette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.9) · D 30.8% · R 68.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -37.5pp toward R · 2008: -0.4pp · 2024: -37.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.9 2020: R+33.5 2016: R+31.0 2012: R+8.3 2008: R+0.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.66%
• Current HPI: 206.4862
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+16.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — West Penn MLS
• 2026-05-12 Contingent — West Penn MLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $47,900 West Penn MLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $52,000 West Penn MLS
• 1994-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $41,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,686 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.