1404 Aaron Ave

Leesville, LA 71446

$89,900B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 890 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 67 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,251/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax + insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $438/mo
• Annual: $5,258/yr
• Cap rate: 12.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.89%
• DSCR: 1.93
• 1% rule: 1.39%
• Cash to close: $25,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $438 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#30 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Vernon Parish (rural): math 35% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #18 of 98 in LA (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.6%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 26 units permitted in Vernon Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Vernon County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 7.3% in Leesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.