1404 Aaron Ave · Leesville, LA 71446

$89,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 890 sqft · SingleFamily · 67 Days on market

Built 1970 0.28 ac lot $101/sqft · 20% below area Est $112k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in Leesville you will find 1404 Aaron Ave, 3 bedrooms, Living Room, Kitchen, Dining Area, great for a first time home buyer or are you looking to downsize. Offers a fenced in back yard, extra storage, covered patio. All measurements are more or less.

Key facts

• Extra storage
• Covered patio
• Fenced in back yard

Tags

• FENCED IN BACK YARD
• EXTRA STORAGE
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $438 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 7.3% in Leesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#30 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Vernon Parish (rural): math 35% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #18 of 98 in LA (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.6%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 26 units permitted in Vernon Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Vernon County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.89%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $111,937
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: -19.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1101 Pinckney Ave	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	895 (+1%)	21mo	$85,000	$95	62
2105 Miriam St	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,000 (+12%)	23mo	$117,000	$117	49
1209 Pinecrest St	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,020 (+15%)	4mo	$32,000	$31	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $19,928
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.31×
• Total profit: $83,287
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71446

• Home prices YoY: -32.1%
• Rents YoY: 9.6%
• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,251 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $499/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $438

Break-even live

Break-even rent $697

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1403 Aaron St Leesville, LA	3.0	1.0	926	$1,050	$1.13	43d	1	0.06mi
306 W Harriet St Apt 6 Leesville, LA	2.0	1.5	840	$650	$0.77	43d	1	1.17mi
305 W Maggie St Apt 3 Leesville, LA	2.0	1.5	840	$600	$0.71	43d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,900 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,900 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,900 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $89,900 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 47 DOM
17. 2026-04-13
    listed $89,900 Active 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    Located in Leesville you will find 1404 Aaron Ave, 3 bedrooms, Living Room, Kitchen, Dining Area, great for a first time home buyer or are you looking to downsize. Offers a fenced in back yard, extra storage, covered patio. All measurements are more or less.

18. 2026-04-13
    listed $89,900 Active 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    Located in Leesville you will find 1404 Aaron Ave, 3 bedrooms, Living Room, Kitchen, Dining Area, great for a first time home buyer or are you looking to downsize. Offers a fenced in back yard, extra storage, covered patio. All measurements are more or less.

19. 2026-04-10
    listed $89,900 Active
20. 2026-02-20
    price $89,900
21. 2026-02-20
    price $89,900
22. 2026-01-26
    price $95,000
23. 2026-01-26
    price $95,000
24. 2025-10-06
    price $99,500
25. 2025-05-07
    price $95,000
26. 2025-05-07
    price $95,000
27. 2025-04-07
    historical $800
28. 2025-03-28
    listed $800
29. 2025-03-10
    price $99,000
30. 2025-03-06
    price $99,000
31. 2025-02-27
    price $99,900
32. 2025-02-18
    price $99,900
33. 2024-12-29
    listed $101,000 Active
34. 2014-01-17
    soldstatus
35. 2013-10-14
    listed $69,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $499 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $499 · $42/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,017
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$499
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,201
• − Management: −$1,201
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $4,015
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$964
• After-tax cash flow: $4,294/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vernon Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201830
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -42.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -32.00%
• Median HH income: $44,822
• Composite: 36.42/100
• National rank: #4674
• State rank: #18 of 98 in LA

Livability — Leesville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #5046

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leesville, LA
• County: Vernon Parish · 21,275 people
• City population: 21,275
• Metro: Fort Polk South, LA
• Population (ZIP): 21,275
• Household income: $55,925
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 659.0

Population outlook (Vernon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,401 people
• By 2030: 43,015 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 38,171 · -15.9%
• By 2050: 34,087 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 28,267 · -37.7%
• By 2100: 25,486 · -43.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Vernon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.9) · D 15.6% · R 83.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.5pp toward R · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -67.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.9 2020: R+64.9 2016: R+65.0 2012: R+57.5 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.06%
• Current HPI: 128.8849
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.60%
• Metro: Fort Polk South, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+28.6% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $89,900 SWLAR
• 2026-04-13 Listed $89,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $89,900 GFPAR
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $89,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $89,900 GFPAR
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $95,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $95,000 GFPAR
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $99,500 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-05-07 Price Changed $95,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-05-07 Price Changed $95,000 GFPAR
• 2025-04-07 Rental Removed $800 APPFOLIO
• 2025-03-28 Listed for Rent $800 APPFOLIO
• 2025-03-10 Price Changed $99,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-03-06 Price Changed $99,000 GFPAR
• 2025-02-27 Price Changed $99,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-02-18 Price Changed $99,900 GFPAR
• 2024-12-29 Listed $101,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2014-01-17 Sold (MLS) — GFPAR
• 2013-10-14 Listed $69,900 GFPAR

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $499 · +25.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.