4217 Long Dr

Forney, TX 75126

$294,900D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,830 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,942/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,546
• Tax + insurance: −$853
• HOA: −$55
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$618
• Net cashflow: $-130/mo
• Annual: $-1,560/yr
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.89%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $82,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-130 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (7.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $294k (0.2% below list).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $272k (7.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Claybon El (math 55% / reading 58%, grade C+, #559 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 575 students, 35% FRL); Warren Middle (math 43% / reading 50%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 903 students, 26% FRL); Forney H S (math 64% / reading 58%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,272 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 29% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 55% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Forney ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.1% in Forney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.