4217 Long Dr · Forney, TX 75126

$294,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,830 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2022 6,316 sqft lot Est $320k · 8% under $55/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful move-in-ready home in the desirable Lakewood Trails community! This spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home features a thoughtfully designed open-concept floor plan with luxury laminate flooring throughout the main living areas and hallways, brand-new carpet, and granite countertops. The modern kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances, stylish cabinetry, and abundant counter space, making it perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The private backyard offers plenty of room for outdoor gatherings, pets, play, or simply relaxing. Residents enjoy access to outstanding community amenities, including a swimming pool, clubhouse, parks, playgrounds, and walking trails. Conve

Key facts

• Outdoor entertaining
• Great sized backyard
• Conveniently located

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GREAT SIZED BACKYARD
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINING
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Possession at closing/funding; Listing status: Active
• Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, VA Loan; Not assumable; Contact agent for other terms
• HOA & community: Mandatory association; Semi-annual HOA fee (330); HOA covers full use of facilities and management fees; HOA management: Insight

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces; Other parking features
• Security: Audio and video surveillance consent for visitors
• Utilities: Co-op electric; Electricity connected; Natural gas available; Municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; Attached property; Built in 2022
• Construction: Built in 2022
• Exterior features: Lot under 1/2 acre (about 0.145 acres); Subdivision: Lakewood Trails Add

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (primary bedroom on entry level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric cooling; Other heating
• Interior features: One level; One living area; One dining area; Living room; Other interior features; Gas range, dishwasher, disposal

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-130 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (7.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $294k (0.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $272k (7.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.1% in Forney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Claybon El (math 55% / reading 58%, grade C+, #559 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 575 students, 35% FRL); Warren Middle (math 43% / reading 50%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 903 students, 26% FRL); Forney H S (math 64% / reading 58%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,272 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 29% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 55% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Forney ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $271,940 (7.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.89%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $320,250
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4200 Plateau Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,832 (+0%)	4mo	$320,990	$175	95
4174 Plateau Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,935 (+6%)	4mo	$340,490	$176	79
4194 Plateau Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0	2,014 (+10%)	4mo	$359,490	$178	77
4117 Plateau Dr	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,832 (+0%)	4mo	$329,540	$180	76
4180 Plateau Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0	2,035 (+11%)	3mo	$350,490	$172	72
4168 Plateau Dr	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,014 (+10%)	4mo	$362,750	$180	67
4172 Plateau Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0	2,065 (+13%)	4mo	$362,490	$176	67
4014 Poplar Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0	2,006 (+10%)	1mo	$299,900	$150	59
4111 Beamer Dr	0.50mi	4/2.0	2,038 (+11%)	2mo	$315,000	$155	56
4113 Plateau Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0	2,065 (+13%)	3mo	$354,540	$172	55
3210 Emerson Rd	0.58mi	4/2.0	1,600 (-13%)	4mo	$253,990	$159	48
2700 Tanner St	0.61mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,065 (+13%)	4mo	$274,990	$133	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-60,369
• Equity at exit: $43,971

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-80,312
• Equity at exit: $25,498

Cash invested: $82,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2200
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,942 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,546
• Tax from tax record: −$730 /mo · $8,757/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$618
• Net cashflow: $-130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,107

Max offer price $271,940

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $37	-5% $-47	+0% $-130	+5% $-213	+10% $-297
Rent	-10% $-362	-5% $-246	+0% $-130	+5% $-14	+10% $102
Rate	-1.0pp $19	-0.5pp $-55	base $-130	+0.5pp $-206	+1.0pp $-284

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,725
• Closing costs: $8,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4198 Plateau Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1832	$3,573	$1.95	45d	1	0.02mi
4186 Rim Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2060	$2,750	$1.33	45d	1	0.09mi
4178 Plateau Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1832	$3,573	$1.95	46d	1	0.12mi
4170 Plateau Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2100	$3,573	$1.70	45d	1	0.16mi
4162 Rim Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1916	$2,500	$1.30	45d	1	0.19mi
4306 Paxton Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1837	$2,600	$1.42	45d	1	0.25mi
4005 Waterford Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1852	$2,350	$1.27	45d	1	0.47mi
2850 Dusty Rd Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2115	$2,450	$1.16	21d	1	0.52mi
1450 Arabella Ave Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1636	$2,250	$1.38	14d	1	0.61mi
2320 Willard Way Forney, TX	5.0	4.0	2408	$3,950	$1.64	45d	1	0.66mi
2140 Florence Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2032	$2,600	$1.28	45d	1	0.74mi
2302 Doe Branch Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2457	$2,750	$1.12	24d	1	0.77mi
2503 Blue Oasis Ct Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2127	$2,499	$1.17	9d	1	0.82mi
1308 Middlebrooks Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2231	$2,650	$1.19	46d	1	1.01mi
3137 Grimaldo Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,995	$1.27	14d	1	1.09mi
3137 Grimaldo Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1585	$2,195	$1.38	26d	1	1.09mi
3001 Glazner Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1510	$2,350	$1.56	45d	1	1.10mi
3204 Stanley St Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2425	$2,400	$0.99	26d	1	1.11mi
107 Huckleberry Rd Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2186	$2,900	$1.33	45d	1	1.14mi
3012 Glazner Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	1984	$2,195	$1.11	5d	1	1.15mi
2035 Karsen Ln Heartland, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$2,125	$1.34	0d	1	1.16mi
2038 Allyson Dr Heartland, TX	3.0	2.0	1496	$1,900	$1.27	45d	1	1.20mi
3324 Perman Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	1724	$2,125	$1.23	14d	1	1.24mi
3328 Perman Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2301	$2,400	$1.04	45d	1	1.25mi
2040 Shawnee Trl Heartland, TX	4.0	2.0	1836	$2,000	$1.09	17d	1	1.26mi
2015 Angel Way Heartland, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,671	$1.19	24d	1	1.33mi
2048 Stagecoach Trl Unit NA Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2284	$2,295	$1.00	45d	1	1.34mi
2048 Stagecoach Trl Heartland, TX	3.0	2.5	2284	$2,300	$1.01	0d	1	1.34mi
4009 Freedom St Heartland, TX	3.0	2.0	1419	$1,800	$1.27	46d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $55 · $660/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $294,900 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $294,900 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $294,900 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $294,900 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $294,900 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $294,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,757 · $730/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,757 · $730/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,304
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,519
• − Property taxes: −$8,757
• − Insurance: −$1,474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,824
• − Management: −$2,824
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$8,579
• Taxable loss: −$6,334
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,520
• After-tax cash flow: $-39/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $294,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+74.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,757 · -4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.