227 N Coldwater Rd

Lake Isabella, MI 48893

$265,000D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,520 sqft · Built 1945 · SingleFamily · Active · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,357/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax + insurance: −$273
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $-591/mo
• Annual: $-7,086/yr
• Cap rate: 3.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.55%
• DSCR: 0.58
• 1% rule: 0.51%
• Cash to close: $74,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-591 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (39.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (48.8% below list).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $136k (48.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#329 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Chippewa Hills School District (rural): math 24% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #324 of 540 in MI (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Isabella County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Isabella County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 8 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $171k; list at $265k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 1.4% in Lake Isabella — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.