227 N Coldwater Rd · Lake Isabella, MI 48893

$265,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,520 sqft · SingleFamily · 23 Days on market

Built 1945 2.94 ac lot $105/sqft · 22% below area Est $341k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Back on the market through no fault of the seller! Welcome to 227 Coldwater in Weidman - a beautifully maintained home offering peaceful living with room to relax and enjoy. Don't miss your second chance to make this one yours!

Key facts

• 2.94 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1945

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community amenities include golf and tennis courts

Exterior

• Parking: Attached oversized garage with workshop space (2-car)
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residential; Two levels; Ground-level entry
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Beach access; Paved road frontage on a private road; Private road maintained by owner

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total of 7 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Finished above-grade living area; Basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-591 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (39.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (48.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (48.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 1.4% in Lake Isabella — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#329 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Chippewa Hills School District (rural): math 24% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #324 of 540 in MI (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Isabella County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Isabella County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $171k; list at $265k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $135,657 (48.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.55%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 16.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $341,322
• List price: $265,000
• Delta: -19.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1004 Bishop Ln	0.46mi	3/1.5	2,292 (-9%)	2mo	$283,000	$123	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $106,633
• Equity at exit: $238,733

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.63×
• Total profit: $343,427
• Equity at exit: $514,837

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48893

• Home prices YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 16.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,357 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,945/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $-591

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,104

Max offer price $160,685

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $265,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $265,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $265,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 13 DOM

   Show marketing remark (229 chars)

   Back on the market through no fault of the seller! Welcome to 227 Coldwater in Weidman - a beautifully maintained home offering peaceful living with room to relax and enjoy. Don't miss your second chance to make this one yours!

9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $265,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $265,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $265,000 Active 3 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    historical
18. 2026-05-14
    historical
19. 2026-04-07
    price $275,000
20. 2026-04-06
    price $275,000
21. 2026-04-01
    price $305,000
22. 2026-04-01
    price $305,000
23. 2026-03-25
    listed $300,000 Active
24. 2026-03-25
    listed $300,000 Active
25. 2026-03-07
    historical
26. 2026-03-07
    historical
27. 2026-02-04
    price $300,000
28. 2026-02-04
    price $300,000
29. 2026-01-04
    price $325,000
30. 2026-01-03
    price $325,000
31. 2025-12-05
    price $350,000
32. 2025-12-05
    price $350,000
33. 2025-11-21
    price $359,000
34. 2025-11-20
    price $359,000
35. 2025-11-07
    listed $385,000 Active
36. 2025-11-07
    listed $385,000 Active
37. 2025-07-14
    soldstatus $171,000 Closed
38. 2025-07-14
    soldstatus $171,000 Closed
39. 2025-07-02
    status Pending
40. 2025-07-02
    status Pending
41. 2025-06-29
    historical Active Under Contract
42. 2025-06-29
    historical Accepting Backup Offers
43. 2025-05-30
    listed $188,000 Active
44. 2025-05-29
    listed $188,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,945 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,013 · $251/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,068/yr (+$89/mo · 54.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,279
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$1,945
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,302
• − Management: −$1,302
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$12,149
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,916
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,170/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chippewa Hills School District
• NCES district ID: 2609560
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,598
• Composite: 28.01/100
• National rank: #6849
• State rank: #324 of 540 in MI

Livability — Lake Isabella

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #329
• US rank: #8104

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Isabella, MI
• Population (ZIP): 5,660

Population outlook (Isabella County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,111 people
• By 2030: 77,600 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 79,890 · +6.4%
• By 2050: 81,568 · +8.6%
• By 2075: 86,602 · +15.3%
• By 2100: 92,201 · +22.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Romanian 5% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Isabella

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.5) · D 45.5% · R 53.0% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.7pp toward R · 2008: 19.2pp · 2024: -7.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.5 2020: R+2.5 2016: R+3.7 2012: D+9.3 2008: D+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.65%
• Current HPI: 381.2
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+41.0% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-27 Listed $265,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-27 Listed $265,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $275,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $275,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $305,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $305,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-25 Listed $300,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $300,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-07 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2026-03-07 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $300,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $300,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-01-04 Price Changed $325,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-03 Price Changed $325,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $350,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $350,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $359,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $359,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-11-07 Listed $385,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-07 Listed $385,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-07-14 Sold (MLS) $171,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-07-14 Sold (MLS) $171,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-07-02 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2025-07-02 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-06-29 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2025-06-29 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-05-30 Listed $188,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-05-29 Listed $188,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2023): $1,945 · +70.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.