20020 Kenosha Rd

Orchard City, CO 81410

$129,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Built 2004 · Manufactured · Active · 64 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,106/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax + insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $108/mo
• Annual: $1,300/yr
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.60%
• DSCR: 1.16
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $36,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $108 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $111k (14.3% below list).
• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $111k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#316 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Delta County Joint District No. 50 (town): math 29% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #38 of 86 in CO (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Delta County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Delta County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $97k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 1.9% in Orchard City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.