20020 Kenosha Rd · Orchard City, CO 81410

$129,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Manufactured public records · 64 Days on market

Built 2004

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

In Cherry Acres Mobile Home Park ---A DELIGHTFUL - neat as a pin - property -- front door facing North - no neighbors to interfere with the view of Grand Mesa -- large front porch - side deck/porch on the East - concrete patios on the South of the home. Great for the 'winter sun' -- flower/vegetable beds - working 'coy' pond/waterfall. Covered double carport -- 20x10 detached storage shed . 3 bedroom 2 bath home with 'eat-in' kitchen. Plenty of storage. MUST SEE PROPERTY Move in park rate is $340 per month plus domestic water add on --

Key facts

• Fully remodeled
• Unobstructed views
• Spacious front porch

Tags

• FULLY REMODELED
• UNOBSTRUCTED VIEWS
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• NEW TILE WALK-IN SHOWER
• SPACIOUS FRONT PORCH
• EAST-FACING SIDE DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount listed (not included per instructions)
• HOA & community: Part of the Cherry Acres Homeowners Association

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Home design: Single-story modular/prefab home; Skirted foundation
• Construction: Modular/Prefab construction; Skirt foundation
• Exterior features: Shed(s)

Interior

• Bathrooms: Two three-quarter bathrooms
• Interior features: Unfurnished

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $108 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $111k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $111k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 1.9% in Orchard City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#316 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Delta County Joint District No. 50 (town): math 29% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #38 of 86 in CO (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Delta County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Delta County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $97k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,572 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.60%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $66,960
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9925 Kremmling Rd #22	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,050 (-3%)	11mo	$69,000	$66	82
20015 Kenosha Rd	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,217 (+13%)	1mo	$76,000	$62	77
20028 Justice Rd	0.06mi	2/1.0 (-1)	952 (-12%)	2mo	$52,000	$55	66
19866 Joy Rd #2	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (+7%)	15mo	$64,000	$56	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $77,095
• Equity at exit: $116,213

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.13×
• Total profit: $221,485
• Equity at exit: $250,619

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81410

• Home prices YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,106 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $420/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $969

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-24
   listed $129,000 Active
2. 2025-12-09
   historical
3. 2025-10-16
   price $142,000
4. 2025-09-22
   listed $150,000 Active
5. 2022-03-11
   soldstatus $97,000 548-char remark

   Show marketing remark (548 chars)

   In Cherry Acres Mobile Home Park ---A DELIGHTFUL - neat as a pin - property -- front door facing North - no neighbors to interfere with the view of Grand Mesa -- large front porch - side deck/porch on the East - concrete patios on the South of the home. Great for the 'winter sun' -- flower/vegetable beds - working 'coy' pond/waterfall. Covered double carport -- 20x10 detached storage shed . 3 bedroom 2 bath home with 'eat-in' kitchen. Plenty of storage. MUST SEE PROPERTY Move in park rate is $340 per month plus domestic water add on --

6. 2021-11-05
   listed $95,000 548-char remark

   Show marketing remark (548 chars)

   In Cherry Acres Mobile Home Park ---A DELIGHTFUL - neat as a pin - property -- front door facing North - no neighbors to interfere with the view of Grand Mesa -- large front porch - side deck/porch on the East - concrete patios on the South of the home. Great for the 'winter sun' -- flower/vegetable beds - working 'coy' pond/waterfall. Covered double carport -- 20x10 detached storage shed . 3 bedroom 2 bath home with 'eat-in' kitchen. Plenty of storage. MUST SEE PROPERTY Move in park rate is $340 per month plus domestic water add on --

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $420 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $710 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: +$290/yr (+$24/mo · 69.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,269
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$420
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,061
• − Management: −$1,061
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable loss: −$898
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$215
• After-tax cash flow: $1,515/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Delta County Joint District No. 50
• NCES district ID: 0803330
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,741
• Composite: 30.33/100
• National rank: #6268
• State rank: #38 of 86 in CO

Livability — Orchard City

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #316
• US rank: #22198

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orchard City, CO
• City population: 1,557
• Population (ZIP): 1,557

Population outlook (Delta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,529 people
• By 2030: 25,951 · -5.7%
• By 2040: 22,510 · -18.2%
• By 2050: 19,460 · -29.3%
• By 2075: 14,030 · -49.0%
• By 2100: 9,093 · -67.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Slovak 6% Iranian 5%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Delta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.5) · D 31.0% · R 66.5% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: -32.3pp · 2024: -35.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.5 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+45.2 2012: R+39.7 2008: R+32.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.66%
• Current HPI: 220.5691
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+35.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Listed $129,000 cren
• 2025-12-09 Listing Removed — cren
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $142,000 cren
• 2025-09-22 Listed $150,000 cren
• 2022-03-11 Sold (MLS) $97,000 cren
• 2021-11-05 Listed $95,000 cren

Property tax history

+18.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $420 · +305.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.