28178 Julia Ave

Big Pine Key, FL 33042

$525,000D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,206 sqft · Built 1966 · Manufactured · Active · 88 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,733/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,753
• Tax + insurance: −$751
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$784
• Net cashflow: $-556/mo
• Annual: $-6,672/yr
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.06%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $147,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $525k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-556 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $427k (18.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $373k (28.9% below list).
• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($494k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $373k (28.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $56k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $52k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#597 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Monroe (town): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #23 of 73 in FL (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 244 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 332 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (42 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $44k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $116k; list at $525k implies a 353% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$90k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 0.2% in Big Pine Key — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($103k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?