28178 Julia Ave · Big Pine Key, FL 33042

$525,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,206 sqft · Manufactured public records · 88 Days on market

Built 1966 6,000 sqft lot Est $508k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Income producing Property 2 Bed 1 Bath w/ Airbnb. Separate studio private entrance, metal roof, mini split AC, 200 AMP service, large workshop, impact windows, close to boat ramp. Custom lots of charm! . .. . the property '28168 Julia Ave, next door is for sale separately as a Rogo exempt lot ' Cash sale only please.

Key facts

• Mini split ac
• Metal roof
• 200 amp service

Tags

• INCOME PRODUCING PROPERTY
• METAL ROOF
• MINI SPLIT AC
• 200 AMP SERVICE
• LARGE WORKSHOP
• IMPACT WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Cash terms
• HOA & community: No association fee; No association-provided services listed; No first right of refusal

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer hookup; Cable available; Buyer to verify utilities
• Home design: Manufactured home; Ground level; Built in 1966; Metal roof; Zoned URM - Urban Res Mobile Home District; Facing Bay/Gulf side
• Construction: Manufactured construction; Metal roof; Built in 1966
• Exterior features: No waterfront; No dockage; Deed restrictions apply; Pets allowed with restrictions (verify with owner); Rentals not allowed; Flood zone AE; Lot less than 1/4 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Range
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Window/Wall Unit
• Interior features: Window/wall air conditioning units; Unfurnished

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $525k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-556 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $427k (18.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $373k (28.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $373k (28.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 0.2% in Big Pine Key — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#597 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Monroe (town): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #23 of 73 in FL (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 244 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 332 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (42 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($103k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $56k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $52k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Monroe County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$90k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($494k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $44k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $116k; list at $525k implies a 353% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $373,251 (28.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.06%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $507,726
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28232 Dorothy Ave	0.06mi	2/1.5	1,064 (-12%)	15mo	$310,000	$291	63
27973 Snapper Ln	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-12%)	2mo	$445,000	$421	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $250,499
• Equity at exit: $472,962

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.21×
• Total profit: $765,486
• Equity at exit: $1,019,960

Cash invested: $147,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33042

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 244
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,733 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,753
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,274/yr
• Insurance: −$219
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$784
• Net cashflow: $-556

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,436

Max offer price $426,785

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-259	-5% $-407	+0% $-556	+5% $-705	+10% $-853
Rent	-10% $-851	-5% $-703	+0% $-556	+5% $-409	+10% $-261
Rate	-1.0pp $-292	-0.5pp $-422	base $-556	+0.5pp $-692	+1.0pp $-830

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $131,250
• Closing costs: $15,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $525,000 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $525,000 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $525,000 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $525,000 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $525,000 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $525,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $525,000 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $525,000 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $525,000 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $525,000 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $525,000 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $525,000 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $525,000 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $525,000 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $525,000 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $525,000 Active 67 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $525,000 Active 66 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $525,000 Active 65 DOM
19. 2026-05-18
    price $525,000
20. 2026-03-26
    listed $569,000 Active
21. 2021-03-03
    historical
22. 2020-09-02
    listed $349,000
23. 2020-05-15
    historical
24. 2020-05-15
    historical
25. 2012-07-12
    soldstatus $116,000
26. 2011-06-21
    soldstatus $119,000
27. 2011-03-11
    listed $119,900
28. 2005-07-20
    soldstatus $295,000
29. 2005-07-20
    soldstatus $295,000
30. 2005-07-20
    soldstatus $295,000
31. 2005-03-14
    historical
32. 2005-03-14
    historical
33. 2005-03-07
    listed $295,000
34. 2005-03-07
    listed $295,000
35. 2004-12-21
    listed $329,000
36. 2004-12-21
    listed $329,000
37. 2004-02-09
    historical
38. 2003-10-01
    listed $199,900
39. 2002-12-17
    listed $179,000
40. 1979-06-01
    soldstatus $10,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,274 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,358 · $363/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,083/yr (+$257/mo · 241.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,790
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,408
• − Property taxes: −$1,274
• − Insurance: −$7,744
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,583
• − Management: −$3,583
• − Depreciation: −$15,273
• Taxable loss: −$16,075
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,858
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,814/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monroe
• NCES district ID: 1201320
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $56,955
• Composite: 45.51/100
• National rank: #2608
• State rank: #23 of 73 in FL

Livability — Big Pine Key

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #597
• US rank: #11450

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monroe County · 66,185 people
• Metro: Key West, FL
• Population (ZIP): 6,441
• Household income: $103,041
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 146.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,706 people
• By 2030: 96,308 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 106,565 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 116,500 · +28.4%
• By 2075: 141,423 · +55.9%
• By 2100: 151,947 · +67.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: R (+18.3) · D 40.5% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.2pp toward R · 2008: 4.9pp · 2024: -18.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.3 2020: R+7.9 2016: R+6.9 2012: D+0.4 2008: D+4.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.11%
• Current HPI: 491.52
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Key West, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+4900.0% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $525,000 FLKMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $569,000 FLKMLS
• 2021-03-03 Listing Removed — FLKMLS
• 2020-09-02 Listed $349,000 FLKMLS
• 2020-05-15 Listing Removed — FLKMLS
• 2020-05-15 Listing Removed — FLKMLS
• 2012-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $116,000 Public Records
• 2011-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $119,000 Public Records
• 2011-03-11 Listed $119,900 FLKMLS
• 2005-07-20 Sold (Public Records) $295,000 Public Records
• 2005-07-20 Sold (MLS) $295,000 FLKMLS
• 2005-07-20 Sold (MLS) $295,000 FLKMLS
• 2005-03-14 Listing Removed — FLKMLS
• 2005-03-14 Listing Removed — FLKMLS
• 2005-03-07 Listed $295,000 FLKMLS
• 2005-03-07 Listed $295,000 FLKMLS
• 2004-12-21 Listed $329,000 FLKMLS
• 2004-12-21 Listed $329,000 FLKMLS
• 2004-02-09 Listing Removed — FLKMLS
• 2003-10-01 Listed $199,900 FLKMLS
• 2002-12-17 Listed $179,000 FLKMLS
• 1979-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,274 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.