Sage 5 Plan

Santa Clarita, CA 91387

$51,000F

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,479 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,733/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,992
• Tax + insurance: −$1,587
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$994
• Net cashflow: $-2,840/mo
• Annual: $-34,078/yr
• Cap rate: 2.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.79%
• DSCR: 0.43
• 1% rule: 0.50%
• Cash to close: $266,542

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $51k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-34k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $51k).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $29k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#229 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• William S. Hart Union High (suburban): math 52% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #155 of 1,400 in CA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 28.0% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 154 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At $4,733/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($118k/yr) (locally 1332% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.