Sage 5 Plan · Santa Clarita, CA 91387

$51,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,479 sqft · SingleFamily · 3 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Cash flow +3.6/30.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

With a flexible first-floor bedroom, this new three-story home provides a convenient space for guests or multigenerational living. An inviting open plan on the second level offers seamless transitions and multitasking between the kitchen, living and dining areas, while a nearby deck makes it easy to enjoy the outdoors year round. On the third floor are three additional bedrooms, including a spacious owner's suite with a walk-in closet, surrounding a versatile bonus room.

Key facts

• First-floor bedroom
• Open plan
• Versatile bonus room

Tags

• FIRST-FLOOR BEDROOM
• OPEN PLAN
• VERSATILE BONUS ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price listed as 51,000

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: New construction single-family plan; Model: Sage 5
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,479 (living area value provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open floor plan (new construction plan); Plan name: Sage 5

🏗️ New construction. The $51,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $951,936.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $51k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-34k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $51k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#229 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• William S. Hart Union High (suburban): math 52% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #155 of 1,400 in CA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 149 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,733/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($118k/yr) (locally 1332% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $29k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 28.0% of price.

Recommended offer $51,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.50% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.79%
• DSCR: 0.43
• GRM: 16.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $951,936
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28816 Kenroy Ave	0.25mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,354 (-5%)	5mo	$905,000	$384	69
16502 Nearview Dr	0.15mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,354 (-5%)	15mo	$935,000	$397	65
16833 Nearview	0.48mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,354 (-5%)	2mo	$850,000	$361	61
28737 Macklin Ave	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,108 (-15%)	17mo	$755,000	$358	51
16872 Bainbury St	0.61mi	4/3.5	2,539 (+2%)	22mo	$886,000	$349	49
28701 Macklin Ave	0.16mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,108 (-15%)	15mo	$920,000	$436	48
16543 Nearview Dr	0.22mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,108 (-15%)	23mo	$950,000	$451	38
28671 Lakecrest Ave	0.29mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,108 (-15%)	21mo	$850,000	$403	37
17023 Canvas St	0.70mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,278 (-8%)	14mo	$850,000	$373	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -39.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-331,165
• Equity at exit: $141,937

10-year hold

• IRR: -55.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.89×
• Total profit: $-504,763
• Equity at exit: $82,306

Cash invested: $266,542 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91387

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 149
• Price-to-rent: 0.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,733 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,992
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,190 /mo · $14,279/yr
• Insurance: −$397
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$994
• Net cashflow: $-2,840

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,327

Max offer price $541,008

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,182	-5% $-2,511	+0% $-2,840	+5% $-3,169	+10% $-3,498
Rent	-10% $-3,214	-5% $-3,027	+0% $-2,840	+5% $-2,653	+10% $-2,466
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,360	-0.5pp $-2,598	base $-2,840	+0.5pp $-3,087	+1.0pp $-3,337

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $237,984
• Closing costs: $28,558
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
28912 Rue Daniel Canyon Country, CA	4.0	3.0	2103	$3,950	$1.88	3d	1	0.73mi
29005 Flowerpark Dr Canyon Country, CA	4.0	3.0	2176	$4,400	$2.02	16d	1	0.98mi
28330 Linda Vista St Canyon Country, CA	4.0	3.0	2748	$4,750	$1.73	2d	1	0.99mi
17833 Wildridge Ln Canyon Country, CA	5.0	3.0	2806	$7,990	$2.85	2d	1	1.36mi
17846 Wildridge Ln Canyon Country, CA	4.0	3.0	1884	$4,995	$2.65	3d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $51,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $51,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   remarks 475-char remark
4. 2026-06-15
   listed $51,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,792
• − Mortgage interest: −$53,323
• − Property taxes: −$14,279
• − Insurance: −$4,760
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,543
• − Management: −$4,543
• − Depreciation: −$27,693
• Taxable loss: −$52,350
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$12,564
• After-tax cash flow: $-21,514/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William S. Hart Union High
• NCES district ID: 0642510
• Math proficiency: 52% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $95,844
• Composite: 58.6/100
• National rank: #2030
• State rank: #155 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Santa Clarita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #229
• US rank: #7378

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Clarita, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 219,066
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 46,869
• Household income: $117,969
• Rent vs Own: 35.1% rent · 64.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1332.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 36% Two or more races 20% Asian 10% Black 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 30% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -441.37%
• Current HPI: 322.2238
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.81%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B